Will gold appreciate more than Intel over the next year or two? I would guess most likely.
Intel's earnings (EPS) are expected to tank, going from $.92 in 2008 to $.38 in 2009 and $.79 in 2010 (estimates that seem reasonable to me - it's guesswork, of course, but there is no doubt that EPS will be much lower).
In 2008, dividends were 61% of the EPS. At this rate, 2009 dividends would be $0.23 (annually!), and 2010 $.48.
The actual numbers will be different, but it seems to be a reasonable assumption that drastically reduced earnings result in lower dividends and lower stock prices.
Revenue estimates of Intel's main customers are in the same ballpark, so Intel can't do better unless there is an expansion into new markets (MIDs, ...), and Intel is trying to do that.
So even if gold doesn't move much, it seems a better investment (and so does cash/secure bonds, as long as inflation remains at ~0).
I would love to see any convincing arguments that paint a less bleak picture about INTC.
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