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ReturntoSender

03/07/09 6:59 PM

#8483 RE: ReturntoSender #8482

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (3/7/09)

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Mar_7_09.htm

The market was down for the 4th week in a row as the major averages are still exhibiting their final 5th Wave down in association with a longer term Elliott 5 wave pattern that began in October of 2007. A classic looking Elliott 5 Wave pattern is shown below. Keep in mind once the 5th Wave down ends this should be followed by a substantial "ABC" type corrective rally that may last several months.



In the chart below I have labeled all of the sub Waves and major Waves for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq and Dow are exhibiting similar patterns as well.



If we look at a daily chart of the S&P 500 it's likely nearing completion of sub wave 3 (5) which will be followed by sub wave 4 (5) to the upside soon. If the S&P 500 begins to rally next week look for initial resistance near 720 which corresponds to its downward trend line (green line) and 23.6% Retracement Level calculated from the peak of 2 (5) to the most recent low of 667.



As for the Dow if it begins sub wave 4 (5) to the upside next week look for initial resistance near 6850 which corresponds to its downward trend line (green line) and 23.6% Retracement Level.



Meanwhile if the Nasdaq begins sub wave 4 (5) up look for initial resistance to occur near 1345 which corresponds to its downward trend line (green line) and 23.6% Retracement Level.



Keep in mind once the sub wave 4 (5) ends this will be followed by sub wave 5 (5) which will lead to the completion of the longer term Elliott 5 Wave pattern which could occur later this month or in early April.