Smilinghiker, here are my current thoughts and charts on XOM.
The monthly XOM chart shows rising support out of the fall 1994 lows through the fall 2002 lows coming in at around 52.50 this month. That has to be considered major support.
The top of the trading box I thought would be tested on this drop is actually around $62 now that I draw it, not $63 as eyeballed earlier. That box encompasses the price action during the 2005 breakout and subsequent consolidation on XOM between the $49 and $62 area. With about 18-months spent inside that range, the bottom of the box at $49 should be the low target on any spike down.
Often times rising support is breached on a test to create adjusted rising support. What may occur is a test of the $55.91 2008 lows followed by a test of the $52.50 rising support, but ultimately a spike down to $49 and recovery may be what transpires.
The lack of high priced Dow stocks makes XOM an attractive vehicle to help elevate it when other tactics fail. IBM has served that role well as of late, for example, as have CAT, BA, and others in the recent past.
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