Replies to post #2634 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

I think you should stick with IDIX’s guidance of $4M per year in royalties. If the royalties end up increasing in 2010 or 2011, that will be nice but I would not count on it.

As far as I can tell, NVS is not actively selling Tyzeka (despite mentioning it in a webcast slide) because the cost of maintaining an antiviral specialty salesforce is not worth it when there is only a single drug to sell. Note that GILD and BMY, the main competitors in the HBV market, each has multiple antiviral drugs to sell.

If NVS builds an antiviral salesforce in the future to support an HCV drug such as Albuferon, you may see an uptick in Tyzeka sales. But, again, I would not count on this.

[io_io]

"Why has Tyzeka been such a dog? I thought you once said it would be a rival for Baraclude."

I will help, seeing as Dew ignored your question. I also think it is instructive, as safety counts for so much when there is competition in the therapy space, and IDIX has an atrocious record of concealing safety issues (e.g. HCV candidate too)

It is indeed true concerning the past Barraclude comparisons –

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=16357377

- and there was disbelief even when IDIX issued cautious forecasts -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=16670487


Hidden from the read-me-first, suppressed for years on iHub in general, here is the central issue - they claimed the lower price was a "marketing tactic" - this is where I questioned that there must be something wrong -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21343675

- soon there was a relevation on the board, like no-one knew before, that there WAS a big problem:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21392641


So, I wouldnt touch IDIX with a 10-foot pole - but I do like SPPI these days......very interesting.....