Replies to post #73432 on Biotech Values

[masterlongevity]

my calculation on MS market share ($)

copaxone: 30%
avonex: 27%
other interferons: 33%
tysabri: 10%

The biologic MS market is now approaching $8B/annum

[genisi]

I thought that Tysabri's introduction at a 2 times higher price started the aggressive price hikes trend. Now that other MS therapies have closed much of the pricing gap, I wonder if BIIB wants to keep Tysabri's price on top as and will raise again (last time was June 2008). I'm not assuming no additional price increases for the remainder of 2009 for Copaxone as TEVA typically increases twice a year.

Note that in Europe and the international markets, most of Copaxone's growth was driven by volume increase not price.

[DewDiligence]

For the umpteenth time (sigh), the prices you are talking about (in #msg-35711076) are US retail prices, not worldwide wholesale prices. The latter are what you ought to be talking about in order to make the point you are trying to make about the number of worldwide patients being treated with Copaxone.

I will again concede that in certain cases, middlemen, disturbutors*, can substantially change drug pricing. This is especially true when products are virtually interchangeable and where pricing can give a particular pharma exclusivity and better price tiering. I have seen this most recently with Xalantan/Travatan/Lumigan saga within my medical field. However, while Betaseron and Rebif might be interchangeable, the same can not be said for Copaxone or Tysabri. So while IN GENERAL, your point may be correct, I do not believe such significant ASP differences exist within the context of these two drugs.

This is flat-out wrong as far as Copaxone is concerned. As I’ve already stated, the Copaxone ASP varies widely by geography and channel. Tysabri’s ASP does not vary nearly as much as Copaxone’s because the distribution of Tysabri is much more tightly controlled. Regards, Dew

*p.s. What are disturbutors? Are they distributors who are trying to disturb the dynamics of the market? :- )