Replies to post #73379 on Biotech Values

[srsmgja]

<< What should be troubling to you (if you're long BIIB or ELN) is that the drug that's relatively new (Tysabri) has already flatlined in market share, while the drug that's been around since the beginning of time (Copaxone) is still gaining share.>>

<< P.S. As far as prices are concerned, I think you need to do more digging to ascertain the ASP of each drug on a worldwide basis>>


Dew -

I have neither the time nor inclination to check worldwide prices of each drug. They may vary somewhat in different locales. I am very comfortable with my stated position and the evidence I previously posted. In summary, you were correct that upon INITIAL launch, there was an almost 2 fold difference between the price of the two drugs. However, 3-4 years later, and approx. 20% YEARLY increases in the price of Copaxone, and less than a 10% CUMULATIVE price increase in Tysabri have narrowed the actual TOTAL cost of treatment differnece to approx. 10-15%.


Regarding the "flatlined growth" of Tysabri, the pharma history is replete with instances where a drug showed a quarter or two of disappointing sales (with an accompanying severe market reaction), only then to demonstrate a significant re-acceleration of growth.

Tysabri sales were growing and accelerating into the summer of 2008 when the first 2 confirmed cases of PML were announced. The 3rd and 4th Q sales have significantly slowed. However, if you look deeper into the numbers, the NET additions have been affected by both a decrease in the gross additions but equally due to a signifiacnt increase in the drop out rate. I think that this drop out rate will decrease over the next quarter as the Tysabri patients who were at higher risk of PML and those that were not completely satisfied with the drug have already dropped out. I also believe that as the efficacy benefit advantages of Tysabri begin to compound, more neurologists will consider Tysabri as a good option for their patients. All of these projections are based on the supposition that we see no additional safety issues and that there is no demonstrated CUMULATIVE risk on prolonged exposure to Tysabri.