>> The Federal Reserve sharply downgraded its outlook for the economy this year, forecasting a deeper contraction and an unemployment rate near 9% by the end of the year.
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This is exactly the puzzling part. How can a mere 1% drop in GDP be equivalent to 9% unemployment. A one-time 1% drop in aggregate income would barely be noticed.
Either the drop in GDP is going to be higher than what the Fed expects, Or the Fed expects only one or two more quarters of contraction, and strong growth to start in Q3 or Q4 this year.
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