Re: Historians are by definition backward-looking.
The market is forward-looking. You may disagree with the markets, but these are the guys that need to be convinced
The market may be forward looking, but the behavior in conditions of uncertainty is almost unilaterally down. So claiming that the market is discounting the Obama plan may not be true, but to say that they are uncertain probably is true.
Hopefully, with recovery.gov and all the other measures made to ensure transparency and accountability, investors will see what they need to form an opinion. Ultimately, though, I think it will take hard data in terms of decreasing unemployment, home sales stabilization, growth in GDP, or something similar to prove to the market that the stimulus is working.