AMD- No Q3 Guidance & Looming Price War with INTC
JBHanauer & Co. (AMD) Reit Market Perform AMD reported in line results for Q2, yesterday after the close. Revenues and EPS were in line with expectations at $1.26 billion and $0.09. Flash memory drove growth in the quarter, increasing 7% sequentially to $673 million, while microprocessor (MPU) revenues declined slightly and accounted for the remainder. We are decreasing our 2005 EPS estimates and maintaining a Market-Perform rating - 2004 estimates adjusted upward due to better visibility. Near-term, our estimates for revenues and EPS in Q3 are increasing from $1.25 billion and $0.10 to $1.34 billion and $0.14 as we have better revenue and margin visibility. For 2004, revenues and EPS are going from $5.1 billion and $0.44 to $5.3 billion and $0.54 as Q4 builds off of a higher base. Revenues and EPS in 2005, however, are projected at $5.8 billion and $0.65, up from revenues of $5.6 billion but down from EPS of $0.78. This is primarily due to the on set of what we believe may be an aggressive pricing environment for both Flash and MPUs in 2005, which has affected our outlook for gross margins. We now see gross margins for 2005 at 39% compared to 41%. Revenues for 2005 are higher because they are growing off of a higher base. Guidance is for seasonally normal revenues in Q3. While AMD declined to give a specific growth percentage for revenue guidance, management indicated that seasonal norms may be applied.