First time post on this board. My compliments to the moderators and posters who make this one of the best overall investor boards.
As a way of introduction and disclosure, I am a practicing ophthalmologist for over two decades. My wife has been afflicted with MS since 1990. She was on Avonex for approx. 5+ years, and recently on Tysabri for 2 1/2 years. I have posted many of my personal experiences regarding MS on the Elan investor village board over the last few years. None of my professional background or personal experiences make me an expert in this field. In fact, my crystal ball works no better than most.
The point of today's post is to rebut DewDiligence's recent post regarding "Copaxone is Cleaning Tysabri's Clock". Not included in that recent post was the following:
Price of Copaxone
11/30/07 - $1881
3 /04/08 - $2358
8 /18/08 - $2592
1 /02/09 - $2848
The price increase from 11/30/07 to 1/02/09 was over 51%
The price increase from 11/30/07 to 3/04/08 was 25%
The price increase from 3/04/07 to 8/18/08 was 10%
Once you factor in the very significant price increases it is plain to see that most of the 42% US sales growth came from price increases NOT unit sales.
Now for Tysabri
For the year in-market NET sales increased 137% to 813M from 342M
4th Quarter in market NET sales increased by 68% to 216M from 129M.
There were 37,600 commercial patients on Tysabri as of Dec 2008 up over 78% from Dec 2007 (21,000). Tysabri's market share went from approx 5% to 7 1/2% over the last year.
There was a 6% increase in commercial patients during the 4th quarter.
Obviously, something happened midyear that changed Tysabri's growth over the last 6 months and that something was PML. I believe the next 6 months will be crucial in determining Tysabri's future growth potential. Over the next 6 months there will be large numbers of Tysabri patients extending signficantly their CUMULATIVE exposure. If there is no significant change in the incidience of PML as these exposures significantly expand, then I believe Tysabri could experience a significant growth phase, eventually becoming the market leader in MS. If however, the next 6 months suggest a cumulative risk, then Tysabri's future growth will be limited.
In future posts (time permitting) I would be happy to further detail my optimistic views of TYsabri, if the board so desires.
This post is in no way to disparage TEVA as a company or their sales team. They have done a good job selling and positioning Copaxone, a drug with the least efficacy but the better safety and tolerability profile.
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