Replies to post #73270 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: IDIX / GSK’s plans for IDX899

#1 – Co-formulating Epzicom in a fixed dose triple combo with a better NNRTI [IDX899] with no overlapping tox, may boost sales.

#2 – Another possible direction for GSK is to combine IDX899 with their qd integrase inhibitor currently in phase II

I lean toward #2 as the primary driver for the IDX899 deal for the reason mentioned in my previous post: #1 by itself does not have a lot of economic upside. There is no miracle addend—not even IDX899—that is capable of remaking Epzicom into a state of the art product.

On the other hand, if the primary impetus for the IDX899 deal is #2 (combining IDX899 with GSK’s integrase inhibitor or another early-stage drug in GSK’s pipeline), then any incremental revenue from #1 can be viewed as “gravy.” The mechanical co-formulation of IDX899 and Epzicom into a single pill should be trivial because the IDX899 therapeutic dose is so small.

[DewDiligence]

Re: IDIX – More musings on what GSK plans to do with IDX899

This is what I posted on SI in reply to a knowledgeable poster there:

[‘Elroy Jetson’]: I believe GSK will combine IDX899 with the Epivir used in Epzicom, and perhaps add a second RTI inhibitor.

›It certainly makes more sense for GSK to dump Ziagen and work with Epivir directly than to work with Epzicom. Still, a cocktail based on Epivir and IDX899 would need a third drug to be a serious contender in the early lines of therapy, which is where the big money is.

Inasmuch as Epivir is a pyrimidine analog, if the third drug in the cocktail is to be a second NRTI, it should be a purine analog. With Ziagen out of the picture, unless GSK has a purine analog in its pipeline that we don’t know about, the only purine option is Viread, which wrecks the whole idea from a business standpoint.

Perhaps GSK is aiming for a 3-drug combo consisting of Epivir, IDX899, and GSK’s integrase inhibitor, which is at about the same stage of development as IDX899.‹

[DewDiligence]

Confirmed! GSK will combine IDX899 with “unique and novel” drugs in GSK’s HIV pipeline. This is good news for IDIX investors who may have feared that GSK’s plan was to employ IDX899 to rejuvenate the dying Epzicom franchise.

Listen to JP Sommadossi at 4:30 into the Cowen webcast:
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/confLobby.zhtml?ticker=IDIX&item_id=2110924

[DewDiligence]

IDIX – There are now many more options for co-formulating IDX899 into in all-in-one, Atripla-like pill insofar as any drug in the new GSK-PFE JV is a candidate.

This must be what JP Sommadossi was hinting at when he said on the recent Cowen webcast that GSK had “unique and novel” plans for what to do with IDX899 :- )