Replies to post #1484 on Hayes Lemmerz International Inc. (fka HAYZQ)

[chart_md]

** Which still doesn't explain $3 to $0.07 drop

As of now, sales are down 10%...ok, so we should be trading at $2.7...

Market is forward looking, sales may be down up to 30%...ok, so we should be trading at $2...

But 0.07...

someone is trying to muscle their way to ownership of this baby

[z4lover]

Ha no one even fully read the thing obama passed...

Not only that.. it takes 45 days for HAYZ to flip their product. they have 158 million of capital they can use to make their product.. Thus if they use every last cent and demand is 100% of what it was they will be able to put out 1.28 billion worth of product..

They made 2.1 billion off of 1.7 billion last year.. thus if they make the same percent return off of 1.28 billion they will get back 1.58 billion meaning they will only net 300 million pre tax and other costs..

Now how many people work for the company, how much did their ceo make??? They lost 36 cents per share or roughly 36 million when they earned 400 million.. now they are at best going to make 300 million... they have around 55 cents per share cash which they are burning through.. they also have higher costs of capital due to their credit downgrade.... ANd might have further credit downgrades... Does anyone think they can cut 136 million in budget cuts?

Guys unless people run out and buy cars like yesterday this company is going to go bankrupt... and that's not good for the share holders...

[rheddle]

This stock has been hammered excessively hard, which is something that I like, because the more it becomes oversold, the more ridiculous the low valuation ends up looking. When the inevitable upswing really hits, it ends up being a more exciting ride for those that bought in at these lows.

Say this only went from $3 to $1, you might expect it to eventually bounce to $2 for a 100% gain from the lows, but as it went to .06 from $3, you might expect a gain up to $0.50 or higher on the initial run, before the stock begins a long and steady climb back towards fair value. That is 900% and is why we merry band of penny players are in ;o)