I kind of pulled that number out of my ass to be honest. The stock is at .92 so .50 with bad news seemed like a possibiltiy -- not something I could put a mathematical value on.
Hell, even the "writedown" may be collected -- a lot of companies stretch paying their bills for very long periods of time but ALIF had to write it down due to "aging" receivables. Some companies will also try to negotiate a payment plan and new terms which will age the receivables.
Actually, to be quite frank, the receivables aren't much of a concern for me. They have such a massive book value, sales, & margins that even a large write-down and/or money-raising dilution wouldn't affect them much. My concern is the disappointing growth in the NEAR term. I was originally excited about ALIF's massively rapid growth. That may start up again in 1-2 quarters and ALIF may become my favorite stock of the universe then....who the hell knows.
I just don't have a lot of visibilty going forward especially since I can't see, feel, nor touch their products it's very difficult for me to handicap the future. This is probably why I normally won't play software stocks simply because it's beyond my area of expertise.
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