Replies to post #72673 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ITMN – Does this make you fairly bearish short-term?

No, I’m modestly bullish on pirfenidone’s chances in the first review cycle because there are two ways to win (FDA or EMEA). This is a tough one to handicap because, as far as I can tell, the data package is sui generis.

If one believes the FDA is going to reject the drug the first time, the stock probably has a good bit of downside…

Again, there are two ways to win. Either an FDA approval or an EMEA approval ought to justify a higher price, IMO.

…although I'm not certain how much of the market cap is tied to this drug compared to the HCV compound.

It’s hard to be quantitative, but the HCV program represents a substantial part of current the market cap. More than half, IMHO.

[ghmm]

mcbio,

Did you catch the Allos call this AM? I didn't but recall you posting about them. I see they are up premarket I thought the data was unimpressive before. Curious if they said anything worthwhile, maybe I should just listen :-)