thanks, that was important to me-- i am not entering that into my equations either. i do see chance of up near term but i am, from my glass point of view i am seeing a stealth entry into a 9month down cycle(half-full/half empty anyone:) Also can't see how market will ramp up in september in what i see as a disappointing 3rd quarter ahead of it. I am in longterm situation, and whenever i make a heavy bet(this not from trading money) i hold 50% cash out of play in case Zeev is right or Osama Bin Laden is captured or erased:)WL