(OT) re:IMGN
Masterlongevity,
Let's assume your projections are right. So in 6-8 years, IMGN has a royalty stream of $50 million/year. Furthermoore, it's probably safe to assume that some data will be released in the interim, say at ASCO, and that will, no doubt, help the PPS. The Market is what I like to call a "forward-looking projection machine," so I don't think we will have to wait anywhere near 6-8 years to see appreciation in the share price. So, what do you think of the rest of the pipeline? What about the other molecule partnered with DNA? How much validation does a successful trial in metastatic breast cancer give to IMGN's pipline?
Garren says that Roche is predicting that Herceptin sales will peak at $5 billion/year. If all breast cancer patients--I realize that Herceptin is used in an adjuvant setting, so not all breast cancer patients will become refractory--eventually become Herceptin-refractory, then this would seem to be a huge market. Do you agree? Furthermore, Garren points out that other cancers (other than breast cancer) are HER2 positive and that could expand the use of Herceptin into those indications. I can't think of a better company to have doing the trials in oncology than Genentech. Can you? Which brings me to another question that I know you have expertise in: How does Roche's hostile bid for the shares of DNA that it doesn't already own affect things at DNA and, in particular, the partnership with IMGN and the development of TDM1?
I'm not knowledgeable enough to evaluate the rest of IMGN's pipeline, but maybe you have some thoughts there, especailly on the drugs in partnership with Sanofi-Aventis.
O'Leary seems to be a very nice addition to the scientific management team:
(Prior to joining ImmunoGen, Dr. O'Leary was Senior Medical Director, Clinical Oncology at Bayer Corporation, where his responsibilities included leading the global clinical development team for a late-stage anticancer agent. Before joining Bayer in 2006, he was Medical Director, Clinical Oncology at Pfizer Inc. While at Pfizer, Dr. O'Leary led early clinical development teams for two anticancer agents and, later, the global clinical development team for a more advanced compound. Prior to joining Pfizer as Associate Medical Director in 2000, Dr. O'Leary held the position of Medical Reviewer, Division of Oncology Drug Products, at the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and was the lead reviewer on Taxol(R) (paclitaxel) for adjuvant use in the treatment of breast cancer. Dr. O'Leary completed his post-doctoral training in Internal Medicine at Winthrop University Hospital, his Hematology/Oncology fellowship at New York University Medical Center, and was a Sessions Physician at Bellevue Hospital in the Breast and the Oncology Clinics in New York. He earned his medical degree from the State University of New York -- Health Science Center at Brooklyn in 1990.)
Are you long IMGN at this point? Would you be recommending it to others? I don't own any yet, as I'm worried about the overall market as well as the seemingly more adversarial relations between Roche and DNA.
Bladerunner
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