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Wizard

01/31/09 7:36 PM

#183543 RE: Rawnoc #183522

I would agree with you there, but I think that pervasive job cuts make a recession continue - those that are laid off of course don't have money to spend, and the people who are NOT laid off read about all the job cuts, realize that it could be them tomorrow, and curtail spending and instead put their money into savings. This happened in Japan 12 years ago and their recession lasted 10 years. Note that we are now in a CONSUMER driven economy, we are net importers, so it is the consumer that needs to get us out - with the government now being the "spending consumer" that the stupid Republicans refuse to vote for (at their own peril, when the Obama stimulus shows even a faint sign of working they will look like idiots for opposing)..... during the great depression, our economy was MANUFACTURING driven and we were net exporters, now it is the reverse - times are very different, back then economic growth was driven by factory orders, so when factories started getting increased orders, of course they would slowly add jobs, so jobs did lag the economy. Since we are now consumers, jobs must recover for people o have spending money BEFORE the recession ends becasue we need people to spend spend spend.

For this reason and others, I think this recession is only beginning, will last years and will get much worse - and sometime in the future we will be calling this the second great depression.