Replies to post #72476 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

BioMS – I wonder if there was an overreaction on the downside. The successful results, and all of the related hype to-date, for Dirucotide have occurred in secondary progressive MS. The results in that population group have clearly been positive as far as primary endpoints. I believe this was the first trial to test if the drug would work in relapsing-remitting MS. So, if the drug shows successful results in Phase III for SPMS, similar to what it has already shown, the stock should clearly rebound.

How plausible is it that Dirucotide has strong efficacy in SPMS but not in RRMS? The difficulty of reconciling the clinical observations to date may justify today’s 30% selloff.

[ghmm]

BioMS:

Got around to listening to the call. Add me to the skeptical group. They defined meeting a secondary end point as p < .15 though they did say at least one end point was < .05. They will publish the data at some scientific meeting in the future.

If you believe there is a difference in disease states perhaps it would be a fruitful investment but though I am not an MS expert by any means it doesn't make sense to me. Maybe if they publish and the results aren't too far off one could argue the size of the trial and the drug has some efficacy just not substantial but with several mid/late stage MS drugs in development I am not sure I would invest here.