Replies to post #72304 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HIV Market Data from GILD 1Q09 CC

The HIV market continues to grow slowly but steadily in the US
and EU thanks to increased testing, which has been facilitated
by recent legislation (#msg-31419107), and new treatment
guidelines that recommend an earlier start (#msg-33124429).

GILD’s Atripla/Truvada franchise continues to take market share
from GSK’s ‡Epzicom/Kivexa, which is a now a very distant second
among nucleoside backbones.

Here are data** on penetration and market
share as provided by GILD on its 1Q09 CC:


US patients: All lines
175K on Atripla (31% share)
195K on Truvada (34% share)
†20K on Viread (4% share)
====
390K on tenofovir in some form (69% share)
175K on non-tenofovir regimens (31% share)
====
565K total patients, +7% year-over-year, +1% quarter-over-quarter


US patients: First-line only
Atripla or Truvada: >80% share (Atripla per se 50% share)
‡Epzicom: 6% share (down from 12% in 1Q08)


*EU patients: All lines
273K total patients, +7% year-over-year, +1% quarter-over-quarter


*EU patients: First-line only
Atripla or Truvada: 73% share in 1Q09 (up from 70% in 4Q08)
‡Kivexa: 13% share in 1Q09 (down from 20% in 1Q08)


*Top-5 EU countries: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain.
**As of the end of 4Q08 unless otherwise specified.
†Estimate by Dew.
‡Epzicom (US) and Kivexa (EU) are the same product: a combination of GSK’s Epivir and Ziagen.