frenchee, the "difficulty" with the XLF now is that it has met or exceeded all the outstanding downside targets and all the significant FLDs are above prices so there are no immenent downside breaks that would give further downside targets. Consequently, the only way, from a Hurst perspective, to determine whether a major bottom is in is to wait for upside breaks of significant FLDs.
From the November 21 bottom, the longest cycle FLDs broken to the upside were the 10W and 5W FLDs and both of the upside targets were woefully undershot and prices have since broken through both of those FLDs to the downside. I would at least like to see the next upside target for the 5W surpassed before suggesting that the 9M bottom is in.
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