Replies to post #71390 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ZGEN – It’s wise to be skeptical of biotech PR’s (today’s gem from RPRX is a case in point!); however, I don’t view the non-HCV milestones in the Lambda deal with BMY as unduly suspect. As noted in a previous post, HBV is surely on the table and this could account for perhaps half of the $287M.

Presumably there is no cost to BMY for agreeing to this clause… if they want to run trials for cancer then a payment is possible, but perhaps they have zero intent of ever doing such.

Well, oncology is one of BMY’s specialties, both commercially (Erbitux) and in the development pipeline (Kosan acquisition). I’m inclined to think that BMY’s interest in Lambda for cancer is real, although clearly not the main impetus for today’s deal.

[DewDiligence]

ZGEN – Below are annualized worldwide sales and
market-share figures for Pegasys, Pegintron, and
(non-pegylated) Intron-A. (Sales of Intron-A are
almost entirely from outside the US.) These are
1Q08 figures, but little has changed since then in
the interferon-alpha market and hence the numbers
are still accurate enough for investment purposes.

 
            Sales   Market 
             ($B)   Share 
 Pegasys     1.03    56%  
 Pegintron   0.90    35%  
 Intron-A    0.22     9%  
 =========   ====   ==== 
 Total       2.15   100%

Source: Roche, Schering-Plough