Replies to post #18622 on Apple Inc (AAPL)

[WinLoseOrDraw]

Will AAPL hit $39? Good chance. M-L wants it to happen it seems like

i don't for a moment think ML got taken for a ride by Jobs, i have zero doubt ML knew *exactly* what it was doing. those public reports are for ML's benefit - and the benefit of its important clients - not for the benefit of iHub posters.

the above shows - imo - just how little investors (as a group) have learned even after the past 4 years. obviously i'm not talking about you, cotton. :)

[baldrick]

Actually I'd planned on buying puts on the day of the WWDC, but missed the chance.

After the big drop post keynote AAPL went nowhere for 3 days, essentially forming a 'bear flag' on the daily chart. Meant a good chance of the move continuing in the same direction. Target for the bear flag was reached today (I hadn't expected this to resolve in 1 day!).

I was lucky, I'm sure I'll manage to lose today's gains without a problem.

I think AAPL will probably drift lower. The 50dma is at 29, might be a place for a bounce. I wouldn't buy it there except for a trade.

[ljk]

Cotton: Disappearing post. Second try!

You were shorting AAPL for a long time, but you rarely made money on it, as I recall??? I said way back then that you had a grudge and you did have a grudge. As you say, you lost 25 points or so in a day or so. Very rough. My point then and now is that your grudge interfered with your usual clear judgment, and you made poorer decisions about how to manage your AAPL stock as a result. Shorting just because you're mad at the company... you know, I don't have to go on.

I have taken lots of hits in lots of stocks, lots of times. This isn't a contest between who has lost more money in the stock market. If it were, I bet I'd win. :) But what do I win? Aaaargh!

This Apple failure had nothing to do with selling on news or any of the usual stuff. This was the kind of incredible bungling that no one could anticipate. SJ should take a personal penalty on this and distribute all his shares to me and the other stockholders who are taking a hit on this unprecedented incomparable incompetent display of poor management.

If they'd announced the iMacs as they were expected to announce them, at WWDC, according to Merrill, then the stock would have just continued on up, with the usual consolidation periods and such. Now it's going to riccochet (sp?) around for a while. The whole company can't be reduced to three months of iMac sales; there are lots of good things going on for Apple. It will survive this. Some will take this as a buying opportunity. Stock got near 30 in the pre market, but it's coming back a bit now.

It's been hit, no doubt about it. And I know you suffered even worse.

As for Merrill, I can't fault tfx, or whatever he calls himself now, for posting that because it has material relevance to trading or investing in the stock. To imbue posting it or Merrill themselves as criminal for accepting Apple's opinion, is just... criminal thinking. Merrill's analyst opinion does influence the stock price. Merrill took Apple's info, expected the iMac, put a BUY on the stock with a 39 price target, expecting things would go as they did with their prior recommendation, of BUY and 32. This time, Apple screwed them and Apple stockholders equally.

Linda

[OriEri]

I pretty much agree with Cotton on this one in terms of where to think about support, but I am a bit more pessimistic as I look at the chart.

You could make money on a quick turnaround trade if it falls fast enough. You could put in a limit buy order around 25-26. If that gets hit in the next week I bet you can turn around a quick profit off a bounce.

Otherwise, you might want to wait until earnings, since how that call is handled will be crucial as to where the stock ends up. I can't imagine it will fall far below 20, but it could wind up around there before this blood letting ends.

Personally, if I was long AAPL, I would exit while the getting is good, though if you are really concerned about missing a run up to 39 (yeah, right!) then just get some mid-August puts with a strike around 28 for insurance. Within one week after earnings, the stock will be wherever it is going and you can dump your puts.