The Depression '09 contract at intrade.com is currently at 44, meaning the market right now believes in a 44% chance of a Depression this year... it's up from 31% earlier in the weak...
On a side note, that massive daily chart in the ibox has some pretty bullish indicators on it... I think everything hinges on the performance of SPG, watch that one, it's on the verge of having a severe roll-over to the downside, the wildcard is GGP going bankrupt, and of course there are others.
I was at the mall tonight, K B Toys went bankrupt, feel for the people who have unspent gift cards to that place, they are now worthless... If you don't know what K B Toys is, they are like a mall version of Toys R Us, I know at least one of the REITS this index tracks short gets a great bit of their income from Toys R Us... and they are very at risk for Chapter 11 next... Macy's closing 11 stores today in the news, I really don't see how this stock wasn't up more today!
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