Replies to post #2696 on Biotech Values

[mgm3]

I think pharma is waiting on those results before paying the kind of monies management desires. I got the impression from previous conferences that pharma was likely low-balling, and management felt they could get a better deal with Phase II results in hand.

In a side conversation at the annual meeting, one of GENR's officers stated in effect that they had heard any and every combination of offers one could imagine for squalamine, all rights, partial rights, etc.

One has to beleive that the Pfizer AMD deal and closer scrutiny of Eyetech, are causing large firms to catch their breath a bit and be cautious. One would hope there's some business sense left in these companies. (I've found more common sense on this thread than I gleaned existed in large pharmaceutical concerns based on the partnernering in recent months.) Postulating newfound caution in large pharma shifts the momentum back to the innovators; this, before the poker game of deal striking begins.

The recent Merck deal is intriguing not so much for the indication of AMD, but as a foot in the door for Merck to learn more about the RNAi approach.

[DewDiligence]

Re: REGN’s VEGF-Trap:

>> The last I heard from REGN, they were still determining MTD, still very early. If you have heard else, please advise.<<

http://www.regeneron.com/investor/ASCO_WebF.pdf

In slide #19, it shows that, of the 10 cancer patients treated with VEGF-Trap at the highest dose tested (800mcg/Kg s.c. 2-4x/week), there were zero partial responses and eight patients with stable disease at 10 weeks. At REGN’s Needham presentation on June 16, CEO Len Schleifer offered that one of these eight patients with stable disease “almost” had a partial response.

Even taking into account that this is a phase-1 trial and MTD has not been reached, these results have to be considered disappointing. You can even hear it in the apologetic tone of Schleifer’s voice.

VEGF-Trap may still make it in AMD, but REGN and Aventis may have to switch to an intravitreal injection to obtain any meaningful efficacy, and this would likely render the product a late-to-market knock-off of Lucentis.

P.S. Our guru in residence, isolution. essentially predicted this outcome a long time ago (#msg-1920811).