Analysis: How Hamas Wins by Losing By Bobby Ghosh Tuesday, Jan. 06, 2009
Mourners pray over the bodies of Palestinians killed in an Israeli air strike in Beit Lahiya, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Jan. 4 Fadi Adwan
Watching the TV coverage of Israel's ground offensive on Gaza over the weekend, I could have sworn that I heard the ghost of Abdel Aziz Rantissi laughing. (See pictures of Israel's sweep into Gaza.) .. http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1869438,00.html
Rantissi was Hamas' political leader in Gaza when we met in a dark safehouse in April 2002. The second Palestinian intifadeh was at its height. The previous week, Israeli troops had bulldozed into the refugee camp in Jenin, in the West Bank, smashing the infrastructure of another militant group, Islamic Jihad, but also killing civilians. Israeli forces were easily beating Hamas forces in Gaza too; in Ramallah, Yasser Arafat was practically under house arrest as Israeli snipers took up position around the seat of the Palestinian government.
I put it to Rantissi that Palestinian militancy was failing, that groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad were only playing into Israel's hands. In any confrontation that involved guns and tanks, I said, Israel would win. Rantissi gave me a patronizing smile and explained that military defeat was the best thing that could happen to Hamas.
In Rantissi's view, it didn't matter if a few dozen — or even a few hundred — Hamas fighters were killed. Their "martyrdom" would only strengthen Palestinian hatred for Israel and sympathy for Hamas. It didn't matter if Israeli jets bombed Hamas offices, because cinder-block structures could easily be replaced. And it didn't matter if Israel took out Hamas' leaders, because they were also replaceable. "Any moment, a rocket could come through that window and kill me," Rantissi said, "but even before the smoke has cleared, there will be a replacement ready." What the Israelis didn't realize, he concluded, was that "when they win, we don't lose — we win too."
Almost exactly two years later, an Israeli missile did come through the window, killing Rantissi. Only three weeks before, a similar strike had killed Hamas' founder, the paraplegic, blind Ahmed Yassin. The assassinations of its two top men were meant to break the back of Hamas' leadership. But Rantissi was right: he and Yassin were replaced in short order, and Hamas actually grew stronger, more radical and more popular.
Rantissi's analysis, which seemed so perverse and bizarre in 2002, has now become conventional wisdom. Most commentators agree that while Israel's incursion into Gaza may leave Hamas deeply wounded in the short term, the militants will ultimately benefit.
In every scenario save a very long Israeli occupation (which is unlikely), Hamas will have an opportunity to eventually regenerate. New fighters can be trained, new rockets acquired, new smuggling tunnels built. If Israel's choke hold on Gaza for the past year hasn't stopped Hamas from arming itself, then it's a good bet that the presence of international monitors won't either.
The argument that Israel's incursion will give the nation an upper hand in any future talks — and allow it to dictate the terms of a new cease-fire — doesn't really wash. Any new truce will be brokered by third parties; while U.S. President-elect Barack Obama chooses to remain silent, France's Nicolas Sarkozy is offering himself for the role. That alone means Israel won't have everything its way. The international outcry over the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza means the broker will insist that Israel loosen the economic shackles as well as withdraw troops. And when the money begins to flow in, it will flow through the Hamas networks that control every aspect of Gaza. The militants will distribute some of the money to Gazans, looking like generous benefactors; the rest they will use to rebuild their military capability.
Erdogan Storms Out of Davos Panel After Peres Clash (Update1) By Calev Ben-David and Matthew Benjamin
Sorry not much English, but .. Turkish Prime Minister (TAYYIP ERDOGAN) Walks Out At DAVOS 2009 Part 1
uh, we really have to get guests to dinner..was worth it. :)
Proper English translation here .. Turkish Prime Minister (TAYYIP ERDOGAN) Walks Out At DAVOS 2009 Part 2. Here He Expains
actually this is good and won't be on Australian news, i'll bet.
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan walked out of a panel discussion in protest after clashing with Israeli President Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum over Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip.
Erdogan, 54, was attempting to respond to Peres’s defense of the military actions after the session had run over its scheduled time yesterday and the moderator tried to cut him off. Erdogan protested that he was being given less time than Peres, said he would not return to Davos and quickly left the stage.
The encounter underscored Erdogan’s criticism of Israel’s 22-day offensive against Hamas in Gaza that concluded on Jan. 18. While Israel and Turkey have full diplomatic relations and extensive trade ties, Erdogan said yesterday indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria, which his aides mediated for more than a year, have been “shelved.”
If Erdogan persists in criticizing Israel “relations between the two countries will be harmed,” Alon Liel, former foreign ministry director-general and Israeli charge d’affaires in Turkey in the 1980s, said in an interview late yesterday. “They have already been harmed.”
Peres and Erdogan spoke late yesterday by telephone and “consider the matter closed,” according to a statement released by the World Economic Forum.
During the session, Erdogan accused Israel of not respecting the democratic rights of the Palestinians and of using excessive force in Gaza. Peres, 85, responded that Israel was trying to defend itself against Hamas rocket attacks and accused Hamas of being a “cruel, dictatorial regime.”
Gaza Casualties
The Israeli operation left at least 1,375 Palestinians dead, according to the Palestinian emergency services department in the Gaza Strip. Thirteen Israelis were killed, the Israeli army said.
Speaking to reporters later, Erdogan said he was annoyed that the moderator, David Ignatius, a Washington Post columnist, didn’t let him make his points. He said he “didn’t target” Jews, Israelis or Peres, though he called Peres’s arguments “untrue.” Erdogan added that he may reconsider returning to Davos. Ignatius declined to comment.
“We can’t start the debate again we just don’t have time,” Ignatius said during the session as the other panelists, Arab League head Amre Moussa and United Nations General Secretary Ban Ki-moon, looked on.
Audience Reaction
Members of the audience reacted with silence as Erdogan bolted, leaving World Economic Forum President and founder Klaus Schwab to make a closing statement that attempted to end on a peaceful note. Spectators included Valerie Jarrett, a senior adviser to President Barack Obama. She was in the front row.
Peres’s defense of Israel’s military operation was “belligerent,” said Abu Eesa Niamatullah, an imam from northwest England. “And I don’t just say that because I’m a Muslim.”
Stuart Eizenstat, a partner at the law firm Covington & Burling LLP and a former U.S. deputy Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, said Peres’s comments were the “single best defense of why Israel reacted to Gaza.”
“Nobody can solve this problem with a temper tantrum any more than you can solve it with an Uzi or a Kalashnikov,” Eric Clemons, professor of management and information management at Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania. “I’m surprised -- the rest of the day was so hopeful.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Calev Ben-David in Jerusalem at cbendavid@bloomberg.net; Matthew Benjamin in Davos at mbenjamin2@bloomberg.net Last Updated: January 30, 2009 00:49 EST
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