Replies to post #264101 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Myself °¿°]

SMH/QQQ next week…

Let’s start by pointing out a few of the obvious;
I posted a set of Daily/Weekly charts SOX/SMH for comparison.
The daily and weekly SOX chart resistance is the 200ma for both charts… see post: * and **

Notice how far below the 200ma the SMH is… Week SMH components, downgrades, failed earnings and INTC quiet period until, what was it? The 12th, 13th?
* SOX/SMH Daily set http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3463736 see SOX 200ma resistance
** SOX/SMH Weekly sethttp://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3463740 see SOX 200ma resistance

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From another post on 6/28/04: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3440793
QQQ Top of cycle INDU:COMPQ~QQQ #msg-3439482 but looking at the NDX/QQQ weekly #msg-3440386 says more room to play 38/38.20? Much resistance overhead.
Since the semi conductors are mid cycle INDU:SOX~SMH #msg-3439624 “neutral” it would be nice for my positions if an over reaction occurred in the chips that helped get the masses foaming at the mouth pushing the nasd/tech/NWX related/QQQ to extreme over bought on the NDX~QQQ Daily #msg-3440783
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The QQQ hit roughly 37.90
The SMH ytd fibs, fibs fans chart faked a breakout above the 50% fib fan and actually closed above the 23.63% fib retrace.
At the same time the SOX faked a breakout above its downtrend line only to be stopped with the 200ma’s daily/weekly
We all know what followed

So… now its looking like a double bottom before a market sell off excuse, “terrorist vulnerable weekend”
I considered trying to play it cute and by QQQ calls at the end of Friday/SMH double bottom… but why risk it only to have the position railroaded from a negative geo-political event/terrorist attack.
Or more importantly; the relief rise we may get Monday could be shut down by the SMH 50/300ma crossing, currently above us.
BTW all ema’s are currently above SMH price Daily chart.

It’s earnings next week and I’m sure I’m not alone when I say, “Show me”

SMH Current status slightly over sold
INDU:SOX~SMH http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3439624

QQQ current status neutral…
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3439482

Notes for the SMH fibs, fib fans 2Year and Year to Date charts
The price channels turned down. Failure of a double bottom sends it much lower.
See projection on the QQQ 2 Year fibs fib fans chart for support of long-term trend.

Projections are a worse case scenario…
I don’t expect it but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Meanwhile I will play the RSI signals

Holding 10/10 QQQ puts/calls Sept.

I hope I didn’t leave anything out… my head is swimming, I’m sick again… I don’t remember catching colds like this before I had my daughter… she’s building her immune system again:) seams to find every bug that passes by town and bring it home to me…. She is so sweet bless her hart–VBG-

Ok going back to bed now… have a great weekend all