despite being in cash and out of market for most of the year, i currently set at a 30.07% gain on the year which is pretty good in normal times, but very good when considering the average fund is off 40-50% on the year for a 70-80% outperformance. hopes of a quick 100% or more gain from october - december were dashed pretty quickly.
The volatility has diminished significantly but will return again next year. I still feel there is unfinished business to the upside and possibly to end of september levels as laid out in October. I feel that will make for a multi month position trade from the short side.
Should the market head up into Jan/Feb a gain of 50% should be very doable with the leveraged funds. After that a 100 plus percent gain should be coming from the shorts. While it is tough to implement and achieve those levels, i can see 2009 yielding somewhere in the 150% range. In reality I would be pleased with another 30% next year, but stoked if I can get something closer to 200%
Happy new years to all and may each and every one be healthy and prosperous in 2009!
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