Replies to post #13588 on Profunds index and sector trading (PRO)

[was Steve]

for me trading isnt about bull/bear debates is about profits. you had a great entry back in may and have had sizeable profits twice only to go lower than your buy price in late may and then twice more in june after much larger profits.

what i dont understand is why you dont take some off the table rather than let a sizeable paper profit turn into a paper loss. you have raised your stop loss a few times on this trade and on the previous one that saw significant profits melt into small ones. for mestop losses are to protect profits once they exist and to minimize losses when a trade goes bad ( i need to work on that one). it seems yours are a last ditch effort to keep a possible pattern alive.

also there is no mention of a bullish pattern. if you intend to go forward with a newsletter service, it needs to be more objective and point out both bull and bear cases. otherwise there is an bias imposed that will hurt your subscribers when they are leaning the wrong way.

you may find some or all of this post objectionable, but i am doing it to help out and try to get a better understand a few things. i enjoy reading your work, but see you going down the same road i traveled last march when the market kept going up and i clung to the bear case for a few very painful months.

personally i dont think the market has any right trading up here, but it is and there is nothing i can do
about that so i trade it long and short as i see appropriate.
I still think the high was put in, in january. however we are about 10-15 points away from hittin the 1510-12 area. if that is closed above then i believe the ndx is headed at a minimum of the 1560 high set in jan.

[otraque]

WF take note:) That is important AI, thank you!
AI said >>The final surge, in both price and volume, in the NDX, NASDAQ, and SOX appears to be related to the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 Index that occurred at the close on Friday.>>
I however am confronted with a major problem, i have measured rate of positive increase in CashFlow in Rydex Bull plus sector (going back back to March 1998) in the last about 30 days time, and the positive increase in CASHFLOW the past month has been 18%, the only times that beat this rate of increase was October 1998 at 25%, October 1999--a bit over 30%. And March 2003, about 20%.
Also measuring asset value of Rydex BullFunds+sectors versus cashflow and an eyeballing interpretation is people have been pouring money into this market, as cash flow is at an all-time high.
In March to 2000 at the peak cashflow had risen to 4500 as assets had hit about 7000.
Now assets are about 4029 and cashflow is 5560.
This remains, imo, explosive, meaning we are topping OR we are on the edge of a BullManiaStampede.
I am going invest another 1k dollars in a way out of the money hedge just in case.
i will see if the Aug41QQQcalls are still at 10cents on Monday as i feel IF we have true bull ballistic post FOMC mania those calls could hit 1.5 bucks at some point in the next 30days.