Start with the most obvious, I would deny that Russia was supplying submarines ultimately for Taiwan because of the Beijing factor.
A very brief history, then take a look at some revealing facts in the following text.
History: The U.S. Navy is confronting a new danger – the growing fleets of quiet, diesel-electric subs among potential enemy nations. #msg-3333316
China and Iran have bought brand-new, top-of-the-line, Kilo-class diesel subs from Russia, and other nations also have been buying submarines. #msg-3333316
The ‘Onyx’ missile means that Russia or China can sink American aircraft carriers at will without ever having to escalate to nuclear warfare, which gives both countries a massive strategic advantage. #msg-3429768
The following text reveals.
Under the plan being weighed, the submarines would be outfitted with Russian weapons but equipped with U.S. electronics and propulsion systems before being resold to Taiwan.
Why Russian weapons, obviously they are considered better and are they speaking of the Onyx? #msg-3411126
Because the United States has not built conventional submarines in over 40 years, finding a suitable source of supply has emerged as a major obstacle to completing the deal.
That’s a long time and apparently we have some catching up to do.
He acknowledged that the United States has been mulling over reopening a production line to build the subs for Taiwan based on its 1950s Barbell-class design after encountering difficulties obtaining conventional submarines on the international spot market.
The submarines are high on the agenda of a Taiwan legislative delegation which is in Washington, D.C., this week, as are the island's plans to buy P-3C anti-submarine aircraft and Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile batteries.
A production line just for Taiwan? The United States and Taiwan are scared to death. It does look like Russia or China can sink American aircraft carriers at will without ever having to escalate to nuclear warfare, which gives both countries a massive strategic advantage.
They are not going to come out and admit it but that is what this text is saying.
-Am
MND denies Russia could supply submarines
Option of purchasing Kilo-class submersibles has never been brought up, official asserts
2004-06-27 / Central News Agency / Taiwan and U.S. officials have never discussed the option of purchasing Russian-built Kilo-class submarines, the Ministry of National Defense asserted yesterday.
The ministry was responding to a Washington Times report published on Friday which said the Pentagon is considering procuring eight very quiet Kilo-class submarines from Russia for resale to Taiwan.
Under the plan being weighed, the submarines would be outfitted with Russian weapons but equipped with U.S. electronics and propulsion systems before being resold to Taiwan.
An MND spokesman said the ministry has never heard of such a plan.
"The option of purchasing Kilo-class submarines has never been brought up in our formal or informal talks with Pentagon officials," the spokesman said, adding that the position papers the MND has presented to the Legislative Yuan and the news media have also never contained such a proposal.
The diesel submarines are part of a controversial NT$610.8 billion arms package being offered by the United States. The procurement budget has been passed by the Executive Yuan but now requires approval in the Legislature, where considerable resistance to the proposal exists.
Because the United States has not built conventional submarines in over 40 years, finding a suitable source of supply has emerged as a major obstacle to completing the deal.
The MND spokesman said the likely sources for the submarines listed in military position papers included Spain, Germany or the United States itself.
He acknowledged that the United States has been mulling over reopening a production line to build the subs for Taiwan based on its 1950s Barbell-class design after encountering difficulties obtaining conventional submarines on the international spot market.
Many major countries that still build conventional subs have been reluctant to accept any Taiwan-related orders for fear of upsetting Beijing, which adamantly opposes weapons sales to Taiwan.
The MND spokesman said that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, some arms brokers explored the possibility of selling Russian-made Kilo-class submarines and Su-27 fighter jets to Taiwan.
As the military has traditionally used American- and European-made weaponry systems, the spokesman said, the MND has never included any Russian-made arms among its list of options because of possible difficulties in subsequent repair and maintenance work.
The submarines are high on the agenda of a Taiwan legislative delegation which is in Washington, D.C., this week, as are the island's plans to buy P-3C anti-submarine aircraft and Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile batteries.
Thursday, Jul 15, 2004,Page 8 US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice recently visited Japan, China and South Korea. The tour was probably related to US President George W. Bush's preparations for the presidential election campaign.
The US has invited Chinese President Hu Jintao to the US, partly to find out where China draws the line on the Taiwan issue, and partly to show voters the importance the administration attaches to the US-China relationship.
Of the two US presidential candidates, China clearly prefers the presumptive Democratic candidate, Senator John Kerry, who has said that he wants to solve the Taiwan issue using the "one country, two systems" model to Bush, who is militarily aggressive and quite friendly towards Taiwan. China will therefore raise the price for accepting Bush's invitation, since it doesn't want to improve Bush's chances during the election campaign. Rice's visit to China was therefore a difficult task. If Hu visits the US next month, it will attract a lot of attention. Apart from affecting the China-US relationship, such a visit will also have an effect on Beijing's internal power struggles.
There is also an aspect to this interaction between China and the US that is positive to the US. Changes negative to China have occurred in the international strategic situation. Namely, China's relationships with neighboring states have become strained. Although not too obvious as yet, it can be said with near-certainty that these tensions will intensify in the future. They are thus important changes, and most important among them are the changes in China's relationships with Russia and Japan.
There are two aspects to the changes in the China-Russia relationship. The first aspect was embodied by the three-week-long military exercise held in Russia's far east last month. It was the nation's biggest military exercise in the 15 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and it was held in the vicinity of Dongning, Heilongjiang Province, and Chunhua, Jilin Province. These two cities are situated close to Vladivostok, the largest port in Russia's far east, and Nakhodka, which will be the end point on the pipeline that will be built to transport Russian oil to Japan.
There is also another oil-related change: the official Russian announcement that it has reversed course on the construction of the pipeline from Angarsk in Russia to Daqing in China, which Russia originally had agreed to. Although the Angarsk-Nakhodka pipeline suggested by Japan will not be built, there will be a pipeline from Taishet to Nakhodka, still clearly biased towards Japan. Observers are now trying to assess what retributive measures China will adopt towards Russia.
Over the past dozen years or so, Russia has sold large quantities of advanced weapons to China, and former president Jiang Zemin has confirmed treaties signed in the19th century and in which China ceded a total of 3 million km2 of its territory to Russia, but without succeeding in winning back the friendship of "Big Brother" Russia.
Russia has both ambitions and worries, thinking that once China grows strong, it may demand the return of the land included in those treaties. Furthermore, a few million Chinese people have already moved into these sparsely populated areas, and could in the future demand self determination. Maybe this is how the Washington Times, in a recent report, came to the conclusion that Russia and the US are cooperating to build the submarines to be sold to Taiwan. Some observers also think that Russia may use a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan as an opportunity to attack China from behind.
The old slogan of the Chinese Communist Party that "the Russian revisionists are still trying to destroy us" anticipated the fact that the Soviet Union's tanks could roll directly into the Chinese capital through Mongolia. This was also the reason that Mao Zedong changed his policy of "overthrowing US imperialism" into a policy of friendship with the US.
Japan has also tried hard to destroy China in the past, but the greatest threat has instead been Russia, which also is the nation to which China has ceded the largest part of its territory. After Jiang came to power, he changed Mao and Deng Xiaoping's policies in favor of anti-American nationalism, ignoring the Russian threat.
In order to cover up the cracks in the China-Russia relationship, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, Guo Boxiong, recently visited Moscow. On July 6, he met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. Unexpectedly, the two sides signed a memorandum on holding joint military exercises, something which will only make the problems more obvious. Russia specialist Rice will have her own way of widening these cracks.
This is interesting because it implies we do not have the new quiet diesel-electric subs or if we do not in sufficient numbers.
At sea, the US has moved two nuclear-powered attack submarines to Guam from Hawaii to put them closer to areas of possible operation. A third submarine is due to the assigned there shortly.
Monday, Aug 09, 2004,Page 8 Amid a flurry of increasingly strident warnings from China over the fate of Taiwan, the commander of US military forces in Asia and the Pacific has quietly cautioned the Chinese not to miscalculate American capabilities and intentions.
During a visit to Beijing, Admiral Thomas Fargo told Chinese political and military leaders that US Pacific sea and air forces maintain a high state of readiness, in contrast to the drain on ground troops from deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Soldiers and Marines from the West Coast, Hawaii, South Korea and Okinawa are either already stationed in Asia or on the way.
The admiral, according to US officials, repeated President W. George Bush's admonition that the US expects neither China nor Taiwan to change the status quo either by force or unilaterally. In private but not in public, Fargo told the Chinese his command was prepared to use armed force to help defend Taiwan if the president so ordered.
In the last few months, Chinese leaders have repeatedly warned that they would launch an attack on Taiwan if President Chen Shui-bian declared his nation's formal independence from China. The Chinese have asserted that their "one China" policy, with Taiwan submitting to Beijing, is the only solution to the issue.
Knowledgeable American officials said Chen has no intention of declaring independence. He realizes it would trigger a Chinese assault that could devastate Taiwan. Polls in Taiwan show that a solid majority prefers the status quo. And Chen has accepted cautions from Washington that he not push across a "red line" that would cause war.
Amid this tension, Bush administration officials have not countered the Chinese in public, evidently because they are so preoccupied with Iraq.
The immediate cause for Chinese belligerence is negotiations between Washington and Taipei over US$18 billion worth of advanced weapons and diesel-electric submarines for use in the 190km-wide Taiwan Strait.
Bush has approved the sale but Taiwan's legislature has yet to appropriate funds and has been haggling over costs. US officials warn privately that Taiwan must do more to help itself if it is to retain American support and should not leave its defense to the US.
Beijing's protests escalated last week when President Hu Jintao telephoned Bush to demand that the sale of advanced weapons to Taiwan cease. Hu told Bush the Taiwan issue was "very sensitive" and China would "absolutely not tolerate Taiwan independence."
Earlier last month, Bush's national security adviser, Condoleeza Rice, got the same message when she visited Beijing. Fargo heard similar lectures.
In addition, the government-controlled Chinese press has said that the Taiwan Relations Act under which the arms sales will be made was a "ridiculous law" that allows the US to interfere with China's internal affairs.
In hostilities over Taiwan, the brunt of US engagement would be borne by air and sea power, some based on Guam. Fargo pointedly stopped there on his way to China. Air power would be projected by Navy carriers, of which six are in the Pacific fleet, and from Guam and possibly the Japanese island of Okinawa.
The US frequently flies B-1 and B-52 bombers to Guam from the US and, in a change from its previous secrecy, makes sure the Chinese and the world know. In addition, Fargo has asked for another carrier to be shifted to the Pacific.
At sea, the US has moved two nuclear-powered attack submarines to Guam from Hawaii to put them closer to areas of possible operation. A third submarine is due to the assigned there shortly.
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