Replies to post #70383 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Zetia / Vytorin

>To be honest, I thought the drop off was going to be sharper than it has been. But maybe I'm being overly harsh since they've lost 33% of their market share in 11 months.<

Most observers expected a significant one-time drop in market share when the poor results in the ENHANCE study came to light. What’s notable is that, almost a year later, the Zetia/Vytorin franchise continues to lose about 30 basis points of market share each month.

Perhaps even more notable is that ex-US sales of Zetia and Vytorin have not been affected by this story. I have a theory about this, but I’d like to hear your take first.

[DewDiligence]

Vytorin, Zetia Prescriptions Rebound in December

[I don’t have an explanation for the reversal of the monotonic decline detailed in the table in #msg-34296556. The FDA’s decision to allow these drugs to remain on the market with the same labels did not come until January (#msg-34689781). Comments?]

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2043787720090120

›NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Schering-Plough Corp (SGP) said on Tuesday that U.S. prescriptions for the cholesterol drugs it sells with Merck & Co (MRK) brose 8.7 percent in December, reclaiming most of the ground lost in November.

The U.S. drugmaker, in a regulatory filing, said combined prescriptions for Vytorin and Zetia climbed back over the 2 million mark in December to about 2.15 million from 1.98 million in November.

Citing data collected by IMS Health Inc, which follows prescription drug sales and trends for the industry, Schering-Plough said Vytorin prescriptions rose to 1.17 million from 1.08 million in November, while Zetia prescriptions climbed to 979,000 from 893,000.

Both November and December contained holidays, which can affect sales and prescriptions.

Vytorin and Zetia sales plunged last year, along with the share prices of the two companies, after a pair of clinical trials led to questions about the safety and effectiveness of the medicines.

One of the studies contained data that suggested a possible association with increased cancer risk, but the drugmakers and some researchers have said that that data was likely due to chance.

Vytorin combines Zetia with Merck's Zocor, which is now available in generic form as simvastatin.

Total combined U.S. monthly prescriptions have plunged since January 2008, when the first controversial study shook investors.

Merck said last month it expects combined sales of Vytorin and Zetia to fall this year, due to flagging U.S. demand for the products.

Analysts have said the cloud hanging over the medicines will likely remain until long-term data on their ability to prevent heart attacks becomes available from a major study in 2011 or 2012.‹