Why have top US officials asked Congress last week to increase the cap on troops allowed in Colombia at the same time Venezuela considers circumstances to be the ideal formula to create a border war: A paramilitary infiltration, which the Venezuelan Army would try to repel, whose defenses the Colombian Army's new heavy tanks, conveniently posted on 'border patrol', would be able to smash through once the initial 'incident' was set? This would then be presented as 'Venezuelan aggression', and no doubt the US papers would set to work writing about how Chavez started a war to prevent the referendum. The war could then quickly change from one between Colombia and Venezuela to one between the US and Venezuela.
This plan that puts Colombia on offensive is the largest military campaign that the Army has launched against the FARC since Operation Marquetalia in 1964 and conveniently comes at the exact moment when Bush has threatened a proactive role in neighboring Venezuela. #msg-3142418
We could be preparing for another war.
-Am
Plan puts Colombia on offensive
from the June 22, 2004 edition
Top US officials asked Congress last week to increase the cap on troops allowed in Colombia.
By Rachel Van Dongen / Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
BOGOTá, COLOMBIA – Back in February, 30 Colombian special-forces commandos silently descended on the jungle home of "Comandante Sonia," a top leader of the rebel army known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. The commandos captured "Sonia," along with her valuable computer hard drive which detailed key FARC drug and weapons connections, without a single shot being fired. In doing so, they netted perhaps the biggest fish in the FARC chain of command since President Alvaro Uribe took office almost two years ago. "Sonia," whose real name is Nayibe Rojas Valderama, is one of several top FARC leaders wanted by the US on charges of drug trafficking, along with Simon Trinidad, who was nabbed in January in an operation in Ecuador.
The two captures are part of a bold new initiative by the Colombian government and armed forces. In the past year, they have gone aggressively on the offensive in a military push known as Plan Patriot, which seeks to turn the tide of the 40-year war against the FARC. With US tactical and logistical support, about 15,000 Colombian troops have been dispatched into the FARC stronghold of southern Colombia, in an effort to decapitate the 17,000-strong rebel army.
The results will determine the future of the Colombian conflict, whether the FARC will continue as a potent guerrilla movement fueled by drug money, or be forced to come to the negotiating table for good.
"It is the largest military campaign that the Army has launched against the FARC since Operation Marquetalia in 1964," says independent Colombian defense expert Alfredo Rangel, referring to the military offensive against 100 communist rebels that resulted in the formation of the FARC 40 years ago.
Plan Patriot, which aims to capture or kill members of the country's rebel groups and take back the land they have claimed, apparently began last June with the first efforts to eliminate the terrorist network surrounding the capital, Bogotá. Then last fall, in an operation called Liberty One, which many officials point to as the real beginning of the plan, the Army felled five FARC commanders and captured at least four others, virtually eliminating the FARC presence around the capital.
Before Liberty One, officials note that the rebels had succeeded in drawing a noose around Bogotá, preventing its 7 million citizens from traveling far outside it. Now that threat has been lifted.
Though the Colombian government is quiet on the plan's details and cost, US assistance comes from the same resources used for the $3.2 billion antidrug effort called Plan Colombia, which began in 2000. With this new initiative, US officials are pushing for an increase in the four-year-old cap on troops and contractors that currently limits to 400 each the number of military and civilian personnel permitted in Colombia at any one time. The Bush administration wants to double the troop cap to 800 and raise the ceiling on civilian contractors to 600.
In Congressional testimony last Thursday, Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega called the existing caps "too restrictive" and said they were damaging the implementation of new and existing US-funded programs. The House Armed Services committee has raised the troop cap to 500, but that number could change when a vote goes before the full Congress.
Defense Minister Jorge Alberto Uribe describes Plan Patriot as a series of operations that will yield small victories, like seizing weapons caches or getting rebels to defect, over the next few years. "Plan Patriot is not a great military operation, it is a jigsaw puzzle," he says. "This is going to last a long time. There is not going to be one great battle."
He says the plan is a continuation of the government's "democratic security" policy that has seen sharp decreases in homicides, kidnappings, and overall terrorist activities. The unusual calm was broken earlier this month when 34 peasants were massacred, allegedly by the FARC, while tending to coca crops in the Norte de Santander region.
Defense experts like Mr. Rangel caution that the government, despite its effort to lower expectations, might be setting itself up for failure by trying to nab elusive FARC commanders.
He notes that instead of confronting the Army head on, FARC rebels were disintegrating into smaller bands and making a tactical decision to retreat deep into the Colombian jungle where capturing them could prove impossible.
Instead, Rangel argues that the Army should focus on more practical goals like dismantling the urban terror networks outside major cities. When attempting to penetrate the FARC's strongholds, Rangel warns that it should only be done with special commando units and not with a noisy deployment of regular troops. "They've already lost the element of surprise," he notes.
But the Colombian Army has radically improved its capabilities and tactics in recent years, thanks largely to US training and resources under Plan Colombia. According to US officials, the US has trained new commando units to operate behind enemy lines deep in the Colombian jungle. US helicopters, which are being freed up from antidrug tasks as the amount of coca sharply decreases, were used to dispatch 1,000 soldiers to the front lines.
Under the glare of Bush’s aggressive push toward U.S. hegemony Iran turned to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps would not Venezuela seek protection behind Baduell? #msg-3126646
Baduell, a man that should be watched.
A worrisome speech by Venezuela's General Raul Baduell
By Miguel Octavio To me, it is quite scary to hear what Gen. Baduell said yesterday in the Carabobo battlefield in the commemoration of the battle that gave Venezuela its independence. While I believe that the country should be concerned on how to insert itself in the global community, these guys are fighting imaginary and irrelevant battles, which really mean nothing to a prosperous future for Venezuela. While I would hate to compare it with what is going on in Iraq, in its essence it is not too different. Extremists in Iraq disliked Saddam Hussein as much as they dislike the US; the solution is to kill people at random as a way of making their point.
While in Venezuela we have not reached that level of violence, I do not discard it in the future given the views and the ideological nature of what is today the ruling party in Venezuela. One has to wonder what will happen if they should lose control of power when and if Chavez loses the recall referendum. It may sound too pessimistic, but when a former Vice-President is the leading speaker for the radical Tupamaro group, Lina Ron is invoking violence if Chavez is revoked and Chavistas within the Government view Chavez as being too timid, one has to worry.
Baduell has certainly been a disappointment. He is reputed to be the man that brought Chavez to power in the name of institutionality in 2002. As such, he was expected to be an important force behind the scenes in maintaining Constitutional order. Apparently he has played that role to a certain extent, but at the same time he has also allowed for politics, nepotism and friendship to dominate decisions within the military, including the promotion of Gen. Garcia Carneiro to the highest rank ever given to a General in the country’s military history. Garcia Carneiro had a very poor career within the military, but his unconditional loyalty to Chavez helped him into the highest military post in the nation.
Meanwhile Raul Baduell has played a secondary role. Once in a while Baduell has given statements supporting institutionality. But on Thursday, he was given the spotlight as the leading speaker on the grounds of the Carabobo battlefield and rather than sending a message of institutionality, Baduell gave a militaristic speech aligned with the anti-US-globalization paranoia of his supreme boss Hugo Chavez.
As soldiers and armored cars marched to the sound of his speech, Baduell said that the Venezuelan armed forces were ready to confront four types of war, including any aggression coming from abroad, particularly by a multinational force. Coincidentally at that point in his speech a tank broke down right in front of the podium where Baduell was addressing the crowd.
Baduell gave a strong militaristic speech, sounding as if the country was ready to be invaded. He talked about fourth generation wars, in which countries are destabilized, he mentioned coups, subversion, as well as actions by separatists (??), groups promoted by transnational corporations and other groups. He mentioned regional conflicts under the disguise of backing against violence. Finally, the General mentioned military interventions under the leadership of the OAS, the UN, or even worse, without the approval of any of these institutions.
Baduell charged the last scenario would be supported by “globalization” backers who consider Venezuela a threat to their interests. According to Baduell the Bolivarian state is against that globalization which promotes anarchy. He said there are groups in the country that are confused between foreign and Venezuelan flags and have turned into instruments of foreign interests.
Baduell’s speech seemed eerie in the context of a country whose economy has failed to move forward to provide the prosperity needed for the poorer classes, despite huge windfall profits from record high oil prices and revenues in the last few years. But it reflected the mindset of the Government. Chavez himself in the same event called the US the biggest enemy of the country, so that it was clear Baduell was simply following his boss’s speech.
The fact is that these men believe that any support for the recall or elections is a threat to their beloved and failed revolution. While Chavez rose to power on the coattails of a democratic revolution, that same revolution now threatens to kill his failed Bolivarian project. Baduell was simply trying to raise the consciousness of the disgruntled armed forces, but instead, stroke a cord that does not resonate with the Venezuelan population. For five years, Venezuelans have heard how the armed forces will help bring prosperity to the masses. In those same five years, the armed force have gone from being the most respected institution to the least respected one, as corruption and ineffectiveness have ruled their leadership.
Unfortunately, men like Baduell remain in important positions with strong personal ambitions, under a very simple logic: If Chavez can do it, so can I. Unfortunately he is probably right and while we are worried about Chavez, Gen. Baduell may be planning his own agenda for the time when Chavez’ recall is approved by the Venezuelan people. It may be the only true hope for the survival for this empty and failed revolution.
-Chavez shakes up military authorities. President Chavez changed the Minister of Defense, removing retired General Prieto and replacing him with his buddy, classmate and soul mate General Garcia Carneiro. Garcia Carneiro’s position as Chiefs of Staff will be filled by General Raul Baduell. Baduell is the General that single-handedly forced the return of Hugo Chavez in April 2002. there have been many interpretations as to the meaning of the move. Some think Baduell was weakened by going to an administrative post. Others think Baduell is outright pro-Chavez and it is irrelevant. My understanding is that Baduell not only feels that the Constitution has to be followed by Chavez, but that he has told the President so. Baduell has political ambitions of his own and Chavez knows it. To me Baduell is dangerous because in any conflict he could come out on top and forget about the law if he can grab power. For the same reason he will not allow Chavez to grab absolute power if he tries. He thinks he is much better.
Bush wants to get rid of Chavez in order to control Venezuela’s oil.
The United States is waging a war in neighboring Colombia which could spill over into Venezuela in order to aid the agenda.
Colombia had just purchased 46 AMX-30 battle tanks from Spain. This is also the ideal formula to create a border war: A paramilitary infiltration, which the Venezuelan Army would try to repel, whose defenses the Colombian Army's new heavy tanks, conveniently posted on 'border patrol', would be able to smash through once the initial 'incident' was set. This would then be presented as 'Venezuelan aggression', and no doubt the US papers would set to work writing about how Chavez started a war to prevent the referendum. The war could then quickly change from one between Colombia and Venezuela to one between the US and Venezuela. #msg-3389459
In a turn of events that is going to cause some scrambling in Washington Venezuela has just signed a $100 million gas pipeline deal with Colombia.
At the same time Colombia has canceled an order to buy battle tanks from Spain due to concern in neighboring Venezuela and the change of Spanish government.
Another important development discussed between the two presidents of Venezuela and Colombia is the construction of a future oil port on Colombia’s pacific coast to access Asian markets for the export of Venezuelan oil.
President Chavez stressed the importance of the proposed Colombian oil port. “We will continue selling oil and its derivatives to the United States, to Caribbean countries and South America, but there is a market that is very far from us because of a lack of interconnection, that is the Asian market. Imagine a Venezuelan supertanker sailing through the Caribbean and through the Atlantic, crossing the horn of Africa in order to find a route to far away China. China is very far that way but through Colombia, it’s not. Through Colombia it would be straight shot,” Chavez said during a press conference on Wednesday.
Bush will now have to deal with the new alliance between Venezuela and Colombia and Venezuela’s Asian exports to China either of which I don’t imagine will please him. The recent developments could make it more imperative that Chavez disappear.
The economic integration between Central American countries may not be greeted with warmth in Washington.
Colombian president Alvaro Uribe expressed his enthusiasm for the new deal between the two countries pointing to further integration of both countries into Plan Panama Puebla in the near future. “Now that the plan to construct a gas pipeline between Venezuela and Colombia has been finalized, we have to look towards the future. We are making progress towards a larger project, towards the extension of that gas pipeline to the sister republic of Panama. It is the extension of Venezuela and Colombia to Plan Panama Puebla,” Uribe said.
Uribe invited Chavez to a meeting with Panama's new President Martin Torrijos to discuss Venezuela and Colombia's adherance to the Puebla Panama Plan which seeks economic integration between Central American countries.
Venezuela Signs $100 Million Gas Pipeline Deal with Colombia
Thursday, Jul 15, 2004 By: Robin Nieto - Venezuelanalysis.com
Caracas, July 15, 2004—With a firm step towards further energy sector integration with neighboring South American countries, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez signed a $100 million deal with Colombia’s president Alvaro Uribe yesterday to build a 177 km long natural gas pipeline from Colombia’s northeastern Guarija state to Venezuela’s westerly Lake Maracaibo area, Venezuela´s main oil producing region.
The Guarija-Maracaibo gas pipeline deal was signed in a petrochemical plant that has been out of operation due to a lack of gas to power the plant. Although Venezuela has the eighth largest gas reserves in the world, it has yet to be developed sufficiently to transport the gas from the country’s eastern most region, where the reserve is located, to Lake Maracaibo, the western most of Venezuela’s regions.
According to the Venezuelan Minister of Energy and Mines, Rafael Ramirez, the gas will be sent from Colombia to Venezuela for the next seven years but after that time, the flow will be reversed. “Venezuelan gas will be sent to Colombia, Panama, through a previous plan of integration that will extend to Mexico,” Ramirez said.
Ramirez admitted that Venezuela is 10 years behind in natural gas development and said Venezuela will commit $200 million towards developing an internal pipeline system to connect Venezuela’s distant regions together. This would include a pipeline from Venezuela’s eastern gas reserves to the Guarija-Maracaibo gas line in the west, where it will form part of multiple pipelines to Panama to access Central American, western US and Asian markets.
Oil port on Colombia’s Pacific for Venezuela’s Asian exports
Another important development discussed between the two presidents is the construction of a future oil port on Colombia’s pacific coast to access Asian markets for the export of Venezuelan oil.
President Chavez stressed the importance of the proposed Colombian oil port. “We will continue selling oil and its derivatives to the United States, to Caribbean countries and South America, but there is a market that is very far from us because of a lack of interconnection, that is the Asian market. Imagine a Venezuelan supertanker sailing through the Caribbean and through the Atlantic, crossing the horn of Africa in order to find a route to far away China. China is very far that way but through Colombia, it’s not. Through Colombia it would be straight shot,” Chavez said during a press conference on Wednesday.
Chavez said yesterday that he met with Chinese investors who want to buy Venezuelan oil for China’s expanding market. “Recently we were visited by Chinese business leaders who want to invest, through an agreement between Colombia and Venezuela, in multiple pipelines from western Venezuela to the Pacific from which we would have direct access to the vast world that is the Asian market,” Chavez said.
"China is growing and it is a giant that has awaken. It has risen and its growth has taken off, Japan as well. These are countries that need energy for the future,” Chavez said.
Colombia's Uribe enthusiastic
Colombian president Alvaro Uribe expressed his enthusiasm for the new deal between the two countries pointing to further integration of both countries into Plan Panama Puebla in the near future. “Now that the plan to construct a gas pipeline between Venezuela and Colombia has been finalized, we have to look towards the future. We are making progress towards a larger project, towards the extension of that gas pipeline to the sister republic of Panama. It is the extension of Venezuela and Colombia to Plan Panama Puebla,” Uribe said.
Uribe invited Chavez to a meeting with Panama's new President Martin Torrijos to discuss Venezuela and Colombia's adherance to the Puebla Panama Plan which seeks economic integration between Central American countries. Uribe's statements and his visit overall dismissed claims of sour relations between Venezuela and Colombia. Opponents of Chavez, and U.S. government officials have accused him of providing aid to Colombian guerrillas and of being soft of narcotraffiking.
The Guajira-Maracaibo gas pipeline will be built by Ecopetrol and ChevronTexaco on Colombia´s side and by Venezuela´s state oil company PDVSA on Venezuela´s side.
South American energy sector integration is an important part of Venezuela’s international policy. In November of 2003, Chavez announced an initiative, PetroSur, at the Congress of Andean Parliaments, which would combine Venezuela's oil assets with those of Ecuador, Brazil and Trinidad, integrating the continent's oil resources.
Colombia decides not to buy tanks from Spain 16 Jul 2004 16:08:13 GMT
BOGOTA, Colombia, July 16 (Reuters) - Colombia has canceled an order to buy battle tanks from Spain due to concern in neighboring Venezuela and the change of Spanish government, a Colombian official said on Friday.
Colombia's deal to buy 46 second-hand AMX-30 tanks and 20 artillery pieces for $6 million, agreed earlier this year when Jose Maria Aznar was still Spain's prime minister, had annoyed the Venezuelan government, which fretted the French-made tanks could be stationed on its border.
Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's decision not to go ahead with the purchase was also due to the reluctance of the new socialist Spanish government of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to follow through with the deal, the official said.
"Because of international politics, President Uribe decided to suspend the contract," he said, asking not to be named.
Military analysts had criticized the planned purchase, saying the tanks were obsolete and unsuited to fighting Marxist rebels in Colombia's 40-year-old conflict.
Colombia's relations with Venezuela have been strained since leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez took office in 1999. Colombian officials suspect Chavez of sympathizing with their Marxist insurgents and Chavez has attacked Colombia's ruling class and criticized its alliance with the United States.
Uribe, a right-winger who has launched an offensive against the rebels, met Chavez in Venezuela earlier this week, signing a deal to build a natural gas pipeline.
Zapatero, who won an election in March, is far less sympathetic to Uribe's military strategy than the conservative Aznar.
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