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Replies to #68722 on Biotech Values
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bladerunner1717

11/19/08 9:34 AM

#68727 RE: DewDiligence #68722

Dew,

The more knowledgeable posters on the GNVC Yahoo board are pointing to Tarceva's results as indicating that TNFerade results are comparable in a very difficult to treat cancer. Can you help me here? What is wrong with their reasoning?


See below what Tarceva got and they got FDA approval.

Tarceva® (erlotinib) Tablets, NDA 21-743, S003: Supplemental NDA
Briefing Document – 13 September 2005 ODAC Meeting
Page 7 09 AUG 2005
The primary analysis was for overall survival in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. In
this ITT population (N = 569, 521 patients in the 100 mg cohort and 48 patients in the
150 mg cohort), Tarceva plus gemcitabine demonstrated a statistically significant
improvement in overall survival compared with gemcitabine alone (hazard ratio
[HR] = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66 to 0.95, p = 0. 011), indicating Tarceva
plus gemcitabine yielded a 27% increase in survival and reduced the risk of death by 21%
compared with treatment with gemcitabine alone (see Figure 1-1). The estimated 1-year
survival rate in the ITT population for patients treated with a combination of Tarceva plus
gemcitabine was 24% compared with 17% for patients treated with gemcitabine alone. A
subsequent FDA-requested analysis that updated survival data as of 18 months after the
original cutoff date also demonstrated statistically significant improvement in overall
survival: HR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.96, p = 0.016.
Figure 1-1: Overall Survival Primary Stratified Analysis – All Randomized Patients
* Adjusted for PS and extent of disease at randomization
HR = 0.79* (95% CI, 0.66 - 0.95)
p = 0.011



Bladerunner
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quantumdot

11/19/08 10:02 AM

#68728 RE: DewDiligence #68722

GNVC - As you noted, these results suck donkey...

I actually thought the 12 and 18 month results were pretty encouraging but something happens between 18 and 24 months to pull the arms right back together. Would love to see the two curves. Don't know much about the trial design (SPA?) but what is the end-point(s) and when is it measured?