Replies to post #3221 on °¿°

[Myself °¿°]

re: the big 3 down in 5 waves...
I'm looking for some kind of bounce on the min charts to end 1 and start 2
would like to find the beginning for 3 of 3 down

I want to short strength today tomorrow
keeping an eye out for the mini abc of 2 for entering 3 of 3 south

[Myself °¿°]

Looking @ Bbands and a possible trend line for a more realistic 3 of 3 for the 5th wave.

All snapshots. These will not update.

• 60m possible trend line for a more realistic 3 of 3 for the 5th wave.
• Daily: needs to start pushing down the Bbands and show expanding volume.
• Weekly: Now here are some encouraging Bbands for shorts... OEX currently down 2.48% for the week.
• Monthly: Here's the rub in my 350 target. 382+/- a buck or so, is the 2002 low and could be the 3 of 3 and possible truncated 5. On the other hand... Breaking the 02 low could promote capitulation and cause the whiplash big bounce I'm looking for... coming soon for a year end rally. Currently down 11.48% for the Month.


60m possible trend line for a more realistic 3 of 3 for the 5th wave.


Daily needs to start pushing down the Bbands and show expanding volume


Now here are some encouraging Bbands for shorts...
Currently down 2.48% for the week.


Here's the rub in my 350 target
382+/- a buck or so, is the 2002 low
and could be the 3 of 3 and possible truncated 5.
On the other hand..
Breaking the 02 low could promote capitulation and cause the whiplash big bounce I'm looking for...
coming soon for a year end rally. Currently down 11.48% for the Month.

[Myself °¿°]

I don't really want to see the vix go parabolic this time.
What this thought leaves me is a longer time projection of 3,4 & 5.
4's sometimes take longer than I would like so who knows how long my targets will take to materialize or if I'll get a year end rally.
The longer this takes the lower my 3 is based on the OEX falling trend line.
I see many high wags by other posters...
I guess traders expect some kind of positive reaction to the fed minutes in less than an hr from now.
I'm staying with my targets and trying not to get caught up in what could be an up and coming front month short shakeout.
Might see VIX T-3 yet but I really don't want to see OEX T-3 and don't believe I will before oex hits 3
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Myself °¿°]

edit: Re: If 1... 394.54 is breached then 3 down of 5 is definitely in motion...

Now lets see if OEX will take out the 02 lows #msg-33638255
382+/- a buck or so... The more I look at it... I have to laugh at myself.
It can bounce off the 02 lows but it will not be a 3.
The 3 would not be long enough @382.
I'll stay with the 3 @ the downtrend line.
Also of note: Volatility Stop (VStp) {orange}

[Myself °¿°]

Working/live charts with 2002 HL/s...
...and thoughts re: the count for OEX









Re: this needs to be flushed and some...


re: annotated chart...... This one ^ is live.

OEX could get a bounce off the 2002 low but nothing I would count on in the overall short picture.
It could bounce to near 400 and after the 02 low is breached I have confidence the yellow
falling trend line will be hit for 3......... maybe next week?
The 02 low could end up being resistance and the top of wave 4
Wander around sideways in 4 or not, 5 will come... eventually.

[Myself °¿°]

hmmm maybe 350 is 3 and 5 is lower...

[Myself °¿°]

edit Re: If 1... 394.54 is breached then 3 down of 5 is definitely in motion... (big money for shorts)
350 is a round number and would be nice to see for 3
then a bounce in 4 to just under 1.

It appears all of this may have taken place. But has it? read on...
Kind of hard to believe OEX 3 could be so short.
If I could get two harsh down days in a row, I could be out of my short regardless where OEX is.
I've had a running fear of being short during a truncated 5
See [Board search] function, key word "truncated"
Keeping in mind it''s triple witching Friday... Myself °¿° 11/21/2008 8:33:23 AM
Looking @ Bbands and a possible trend line Myself °¿° 11/18/2008 7:30:41 AM
I lost the detailed post I just made Myself °¿° 11/17/2008 8:34:09 AM
I dislike elongated 4's after a 4 is topped so much and the possibility of a truncated/failed 5,
I should probably just start taking my short gains first chance I get.
I know!!!... it would be great to be stubborn enough to stick it out until the dow double bottoms... but I just don't know if it will.

Friday I was more than ready to start hedging away from being short with some XLF calls
for a bounce into 4 just under 1 or XLF 11.50
day limit for 20 XJZLJ Dec10c @.70 Target just under xlf 11.50 eventually after the fill
XLF order did not fill because oex missed hitting 350 by about 11+/- points
I would also add the XLF long position would have filled before OEX hit 350

Now... when I look at the price action difference between OEX and XLF
in relation to where 1 is on both charts...............
It leads me to believe OEX has not finished 3 because XLF didn't even come close to putting in a 4.
...ya follow me?
Now this could have simply been the shorts in the financials are strong in position and...
the shorts in most other components of the S&P were not.
I have noticed XLF lags to the upside in relation to the S&P but eventually catches up... and matches the count.

Nice tail XLF
Short covering rallies are frustrating for bears... easy to get shaken out.
I learned a long time ago I should not buy triple witching rallies.
If OEX is up Monday morning, it can't go up very much without breaking over 1 {394?} or the count is bogus.
It would clearly be easy to stay short OEX if the financials (XLF) makes a new low before OEX does next week...
and something I'm looking for as a hint. XLF has been a good feeler gauge for OEX.
Kind of hard to believe OEX 3 could be so short.

This could be one of those excellent times being short waiting on capitulation but I sure don't want to loose the gains.