Replies to post #15213 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[read_this_n0w]

Boy oh boy..... abundant pink coloured glasses

"even through the issuance of more stock if necessary (at a much higher price of course"


You realize that upon Atryn approval, gtcb will have to
a) repay the LFB loan or be diluted at 31 cents
b) finance further expense from that moment forward as well, with cash burn unlikely to be smaller than today and if they do not want to convert the LFB loan, they will have to finance that as well.


whilst considering that
1) IF approved, the indication it can be used for is tiny (supported by so much as non existent eu sales so far for the same indication )
2) Any DIC progress is still far out, as are any ovation milestones
3)approval might be slightly delayed due to FDA backlog, and if that happens gtcb is in a tight spot as well

Now considering all this is know to the public, do you not think its likely that about 90% of all holders will sell the news or shortly after since dilution is a given once it happens.
But before they will it will spike like during the internet bubble? Since i am sure that will be at stellar prizes since current indication has blockbuster potential...(oops?)

Positive thinking is good, but i really feel some have fallen in love and lost criticism where it is warranted.


PS Yes i am pissed at gtcb management but no i do not hold the same position i did two years ago so i probably should not complain too much but count those blessings. End of 2007 is when i got more sceptical and unloaded around 1$.
Still hold a position and still spent a ton of time on this company as well.

[vinmantoo]

biopearl,

You are exactly right. There is no way Genzyme would keep GTCB on its books since the losses that accrue during development would destroy their bottom line. They did what any smart company would do, spin off GTCB and take shares in the company. I worked in a big pharma prior to going to graduate shcool. They do not like to take risks for the same reasons why Genzyme spun off GTCB and they are very short sighted. Big pharma would rather wait until after a concept has been proven, and then buy back in even if it costs them far more than if they got in early. No big executive wants to put themselves on the line with a failure that doesn't pan out. In the case of GTCB, it means waiting until FDA approval or rATIII, and quite possibly even for FOB legislation passage for the doors to be open wide for big pharma.

As DEW explained so well what happened with some big companies who contracted with GTCB. I would also point out that some of these antibodies were often undisclosed and in pre-clinical status, so like what happened with Merrimack or PGNX, they could have failed trials, or been shelved for more promising internal projects, respectively. That is why GTCB's shift into making rare or hard to produce plasma proteins is a much better approach. Too bad that wasn't the direction from the start.

My whole point for raising these issues was to illustrate the distortions and misrepresentations from Johnbits.