Right--the divergence between BP and microcap valuations of the same IP and compound platform is greater. In fact, that's where private companies have an advantage, because their valuations are not predicated upon market sentiment.
Re: a partnership and upfronts. It remains a question whether RD "only" would be partnered, or whether combo opioid therapy and/or sleep apnea would be included, and to what degree they would affect upfronts as opposed to milestones. Before the meltdown, I at one point made reference to a $20-30 million upfront goal. It could depend on which geographic territories are included, but I'd ratchet that down somewhat--$15-20 million? There was a lot of discussion at Windhover about risksharing, more money being put into performance milestones. But I'm just guessing. A midsize company is more likely to be able to make a snap strategic decision to try to close a deal now than a Big Pharma. Fewer bureaucratic layers.
The possibility of a small PIPE is now higher than I thought it would be pre-crash, because of the timing issue. There is money available, but as several people said yesterday, the terms are "ugly." Cortex has a much better shot at financing--or a partnership-- with Phase IIa data than if they didnt have it. It is not impossible for them to get a deal done before year-end....but all of these factors reduce its probability.
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