Replies to post #14818 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[oldacct]

Dew, you are correct, recently I spoke to an old
acquaintance from Genzyme to see if there was any
interest in GTC and he said "they would be involved
in the FOB market once the rules were known." He
did not say they would be involved with GTC, although
he still was well aware of them.

Prudent management would cut costs to the bare bone
and hold on for the next year, but I guess it might
be a little to late for that.

[quantumdot]

>GTCB is effectively an out-of-the-money call option on one of the following...<

Agreed.

>1. FDA approval or near-approval of ATryn during 1H09, followed by a buyout/merger at a substantially better valuation than the current share price.<

Given the very poor commercial success of ATryn in Europe post approval (and LEO's apparent willingness to walk away from it,) I don't see how approval in the US for the HD indication does anything "substantial" for the company's valuation. Won't it be a commercial dog here too?

[croumagnon]

"If none of the aforementioned outcomes occurs, it’s hard to see how existing shareholders end up with anything of consequence"

I agree. After some thought, I sold a large part of my GTCB holdings today at a big loss. This may be a good play down the line but, for now, it is dead money until early 2009 at best. It seems to me that, barring a small miracle, LFB will eventually take this company over for peanuts...

Cox and the board have been a great disappointment...

[alertmeipp]

>1. FDA approval or near-approval of ATryn during 1H09, followed by a buyout/merger at a substantially better valuation than the current share price.

My worry now is even FDA approval can't save this company. The indication is too small and seem like no one except some of us here see GTCB beyond their cash can last.

What a disaster.

I hoped Cox can give me a sense of urgency and vision today, instead, he is in denial and still in hope for the best mode.

But can we blame him? I can't believe 25 cents after all these accomplishment. He probably are pissed too.

[biopearl]

Just went back and reviewed Dew's post. It addresses just about everything. We wait for approval. Not much will happen before then. bp

[keitern]

>>1. FDA approval or near-approval of ATryn during 1H09, followed by a buyout/merger at a substantially better valuation than the current share price<<

Dew, I assume you have the odds at >>50% for #1 happening or you would have sold. REgards.