Similar to MNTA, there's been no obvious negative material news around TTHI since the summer, making the decline seem irrational. In fact the only material release was the positive news that the 360 person PII trial of ELND-005, their Alzheimer's drug and lead compound, finished enrollment *ahead* of schedule a few weeks ago.
One possible narrative to explain the recent action is that the stock took a bump down from ~12 to around ~7 soon after the Elan ICAD AAB-001 results, which hurt the credibility of Transition's partner in particular and the amyloid hypothesis in general. ELND-005 is a small-molecule drug that stops amyloid beta monomers from binding with each other and forming the oligemeric forms that are supposed to be a cause of Alzheimier's, at least in vitro and in zombie Alzheimer's rats. The stock then moved from $7 to its current range of $3 - $4 in the current market turmoil.
There has been some delays in other parts of their very small pipeline: their Lilly-partnered diabetes drug Gastrin was put in a standalone PII instead of an immediate combo trial with Lilly's EGF drug, which may mean that Lilly isn't as confident as hoped about Gastrin. Combined with the FDA being stricter with diabetes trials, and there is a large decrease in the NPV of that program. Elan and Transition have also been teasing us for over a year about starting ELND-005 in a trial in MCI (mild cognitive impairment - e.g. pre-Alzheimer's), but it hasn't happened yet. Finally, Transition hasn't yet started Minozac, their drug targeted for traumatic brain injury, into human trials, indicates the pre-clinical probably isn't going as well as hoped. These issues certainly don't merit the drop we've seen, however.
As for the bounce today, who knows. Probably just one big individual buyer. The market cap is very low. I've been averaging down, and it's now by far my biggest biotech holding, but I expect to be in the red for a while. The only possible large material news in the next year is if the early peek at ELND-005 results reveals something spectacular.
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