Replies to post #254919 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[patentlawmeister]

I've been lurking for awhile, and - pls. don't take this as criticism - but i'm wondering how you think you can predict with confidence the Nasdaq will go 300+ points higher over the next few months, then down next year as the options rules kick in, etc. I think 90% of the the pundits at the beginning of 2004 were SURE the Nasdaq and Dow were heading higher in 2004 - it was like a no brainer to all of them (see Barrons issues at the beginning of the year) ... and now we're almost half way through and the markets are about break even.

Correct me if i'm wrong, but I recall during the bear market in March 2003 you were expounding that the bear market had NOT reached its low, that the Nasdaq was surely going down further. And we all know what happened from mid March '03 to today.

Of course i know nobody can predict the overall market direction with 100% accuracy. Just wondering if all these predictions of yours turn out to be right just half the time.

In edit - my own indicators are based on insider buying and selling. Right now insiders that are buying are far and few between, quite a contrast from mid 2002. Practically every insider is selling. That tells me something.

[ajtj99]

Zeev, one thing I think we need to consider is Greenspan's tendency to over-react to future uncertainty.

In 1999 he was spooked about Y2K, and pumped and pumped. This time he could be spooked by Athens/9-11 anniversary and election threat (see Spain) /Iraq/ etc.

That might lead him to pump all the way through September or even October. It's not rational, but sometimes he's irrationally exhuberant with the printing presses.

I normally don't talk stuff like this, as I find it doesn't aid in my trading, but I was just throwing it out there to support a rise into November/December.