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tregaron

10/06/08 5:20 PM

#21139 RE: Market_Fest4 #21130

On an intermediate basis I think we may have seen the low today. The SPY chart has moved smartly across the channel and bounced off the lower range:



So, I think we'll build a bit of a base and get a move up from here. Long term, I'm not so optimistic. Here is a 38-year chart of the DOW:



Given the assumption that we are indeed in a major recession, the downside risk is substantial. After a short term correction of the recent rout, look for prices to continue down...finding support in the 7500-8000 range.