The following article is extremely conservative, most analysts put China’s capabilities somewhat closer to ours and when considering the ‘assassin’s mace’ we become more evenly matched.
The Chinese cannot equal us yet but have instead put emphasis on how to effectively prevent intervention by superior US forces.
To achieve that, the Chinese might already have been developing a weapon that they cryptically call an 'assassin's mace'.
China is focusing on building up a more advanced submarine fleet with quieter vessels and harder-to-detect torpedoes, a key component in holding back any US naval task force were the US to intervene in a cross-straits war.
The above sentence gives us a glimpse at one of the weapons of the ‘assassin’s mace’, the new advanced submarines. The ‘mace’ includes a prevention of intervention by superior US forces that are ferried throughout the world on carriers. What China is saying is that should a conflict arise we will see one or more of our aircraft carriers and accompanying ships disappear.
The U.S. Navy is confronting a new danger – the growing fleets of quiet, diesel-electric subs among potential enemy nations and China has indicated they will use them.
-Am
China takes war lessons from US
By Benjamin Robertson in Beijing
Wednesday 09 June 2004, 18:05 Makka Time, 15:05 GMT
China has been studying the recent military experiences of the United States, particularly in Iraq, and using the lessons to streamline its own security strategy, according to the Pentagon.
Released in early June, the US Defence Department report is part of an annual synopsis of China's military strength. It said the most striking aspect of last year's war for People's Liberation Army (PLA) strategists was the speed with which Baghdad was taken using a combination of air and ground forces.
The recent photos concerning the hidden working of Abu Ghraib prison may have revealed the full nature of what the US military really meant by shock and awe tactics.
But when it comes to learning from and emulating military strategy, it seems the US army is still considered the benchmark to go by.
'The speed of the coalition ground force and the role of special forces ... have caused PLA theorists to rethink their assumptions about the value of long-range precision strikes, independent of ground forces,' the report says.
Apparently, the PLA is now focusing its attention on greater cross-force coordination as a result of witnessing allied ground and air troops working effectively together in Iraq.
Technology gap
Currently the world's largest armed force with some 2.5 million personnel, the PLA has been struggling to reform itself since 1979 when a series of inconclusive border clashes with Vietnam exposed the weaknesses of relying upon superior numbers alone.
This year, according to Chinese government figures, Beijing is planning an 11.6% increase in defence spending, a hike that will bring the total defence figure to $25 billion. (By contrast, the Bush administration has requested a 2005 defence budget of $401.7 billion, although some experts have said the real figure may be double that.)
The point of this new spending increase, said Luo Yuan, a senior strategist at the Academy of Military Sciences, is to help China close the technological gap between foreign and domestic military organisations.
By learning in part from the US, China is planning a force reduction of some 200,000 troops coupled with a heavy investment in advanced technology, including space-based weaponry and an improved communication system.
The Pentagon estimates China's actual defence budget at between $50 and $70 billion (a figure that would make China the third largest defence spender in the world), and describes China, after a decade of strong economic growth and enhanced international stature, as being focused on achieving "great power status".
Global ambitions
"It is no secret that China aspires to have developed military capabilities," Robert Karnoil, Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defense Weekly, a specialist publication on military affairs, told Aljazeera.net.
"They have themselves announced that in the short term (the next 50 years), their aims are to be the overwhelming power of influence in the region, while in the long term (next 100 years) they want to be compatible with the US."
Such ambitions have already had some talking about the prospect of a second cold war and arms race taking place in the Asia-Pacific region.
According to Randall Forsberg of the Institute of Defence and Disarmament Studies, an independent thinktank on global military affairs, the steady decline of US influence in the area could result in a competitive arms race between regional powers, most notably Russia and China.
"China's military strategy reflects the ambiguity with which its leaders seek to cloak military and security affairs"
Pentagon report
"Until September 11, the prospect of an East Asian arms race was a key part of US administration thinking in Asia, and I expect that as the Iraqi situation cools, attention will be turned back to East Asia," Forsberg said.
The Chinese Government has responded coldly to the Pentagon report, which talks about Beijing's ultimate motives for increasing arms spending - in particular a questioning of what exactly China's defence policy means.
"China's military strategy, Active Defence, reflects the ambiguity with which its leaders seek to cloak military and security affairs," says the Pentagon report.
It declares a defensive approach and asserts China does not initiate wars or fight wars of aggression, but engages in war only to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity and 'attacks only after being attacked'.
However, Beijing's definition of an attack on national territory or sovereignty, or what constitutes an initial attack, remains vague."
Speaking at a Foreign Ministry press conference, spokesman Liu Jianchao was quoted by the Xinhua media group as saying that the report was full of "Cold War mentality and the hackneyed theme of a China threat".
Denying what he called "ulterior motives" in releasing the report, Liu Jianchao went on to declare: "China has a right to build up national defence in safeguarding national security and territorial integrity."
Potential flashpoint
Although a yearly fixture, the report has helped draw further attention to the region and the biggest single potential flashpoint, Taiwan.
With an estimated total of 500 short-range missiles pointed at the island, Taiwan is seen as an integral part of China and a renegade province by Beijing. However, the island continues to enjoy a degree of US protection and arms support.
Now the growth of Taiwanese nationalism under President Chen Shui-bian is proving irksome to Beijing. Prior to his recent re-election, Chen made preparations to hold a referendum asking the Taiwanese public whether or not they wanted the missiles to remain pointed at them.
In the end, the referendum failed to attract enough votes to be deemed official but in the mainland's eyes any referendum on an issue concerning a "region" of China should include the entire Chinese population, not just the inhabitants of its "rogue province".
China has long stated that any declaration of independence will result in a military response from the mainland.
"America may see a further increase in coastal missiles as being provocative but among the Chinese public and intellectuals China does need to strengthen its military," said professor Mei Renyi of the American Studies Centre in Beijing's Foreign Studies University.
"No Chinese leader could countenance not being able to respond were Taiwan to declare independence - it would be too big a blow to the Chinese authorities."
According to the Pentagon report, China is already putting the lessons learnt from Iraq into effect with increased investment and training for military units stationed closest to Taiwan.
Moving away from the notion that airpower alone can force a capitulation (a notion that became popular after the 1999 Kosovo conflict), China is apparently upgrading equipment among amphibious assault units and training special forces for tactical-strike operations.
In addition, China is focusing on building up a more advanced submarine fleet with quieter vessels and harder-to-detect torpedoes, a key component in holding back any US naval task force were the US to intervene in a cross-straits war.
Failed expectations
As impressive as China's plans may be, the PLA is still a fighting force of dubious utility and it remains questionable as to whether it can upgrade its equipment in line with projections.
"The PLA is not an efficient fighting force for any major conflict as the modernisation of the army is just too large scale and too expensive," said Karnoil of Jane's Defense Weekly. "They have not seen conflict for 35 years."
"This is still a backward and impoverished country and this is where China's leaders concerns now lie"
Symbolic of this was the PLA's recent purchase of 24 Su-30 aircraft from Russia. According to Forsberg, the quality of these planes is not in line with the latest technology, and the fact that China is importing planes perhaps suggests that its own designs have failed to meet expectations.
China does not yet have the economic infrastructure and scientific know how in place to generate advanced technological weapons," said Forsberg.
In addition, although the Pentagon suggests that China's real military budget for 2004 is $50 to $70 billion, others believe this is unrealistically high.
"People are exaggerating the threat posed by China by overstating the country's economic growth and the emphasis China's leaders place on military build-up," said Mei.
"China learnt from the USSR-US arms race and how that hastened the collapse of the Soviet Union's economy.
"This is still a backward and impoverished country and this is where China's leaders' concerns now lie," said professor Mei.
Reference: Quiet diesel subs surface as new threat
By James W. Crawley STAFF WRITER
January 22, 2004
Years after the Cold War threat of a Soviet submarine attack ended, the U.S. Navy is confronting a new danger – the growing fleets of quiet, diesel-electric subs among potential enemy nations.
As a result, the service is creating a San Diego-based command tasked with training and developing strategies and tactics for hunting undersea foes.
"We have a plethora of capable diesel submarines throughout the world," said Bob Brandhuber, a retired Navy sub captain who is spearheading the opening of the Fleet Anti-Submarine Warfare Command at Point Loma.
Added military analyst Patrick Garrett: "The Navy is in dire straits. If you can't track down submarines, it's impossible to control the seas."
Over the past decade, the submarines that once cruised the ocean depths waiting to launch nuclear missiles at U.S. cities have rusted away at Russian naval bases.
Relieved, the Navy mothballed many of its anti-submarine forces, including sub-hunting submarines and aircraft based in San Diego. Naval training has largely eschewed looking beneath the waves, instead focusing on long-range missile attacks and escorting aircraft carrier strike groups.
However, several nations, including potential adversaries such as Iran and China, now have small but growing fleets of almost undetectable diesel-electric subs.
A hostile, seafaring nation that wants to influence world events has only to go out and buy a diesel sub, Brandhuber added. Newer models, plus older surplus ones, are being sold by Germany, France, Italy and Russia.
Just like nuclear-powered submarines, diesel subs can carry torpedoes, cruise missiles and mines. While conventional submarines must refuel during long journeys, military planners worry that such vessels can hide and wait at strategic "choke points" such as the Taiwan Strait or the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, attacking U.S. warships and cargo vessels.
However, no navy has been in a "shooting war" with a submarine since a British nuclear sub sank an Argentine cruiser during the 1982 Falklands War.
The Navy must counter the submarine threat to ensure freedom of movement on the seas, analysts say.
The command, with a rear admiral in charge, will be "a centralized, coordinated voice" for anti-submarine warfare, Brandhuber said.
It will have about 90 uniformed, civilian and contractor personnel, plus 40 in Norfolk, Va., and a few in Japan, he added. No one has been selected for the rear admiral's job, and the date for the establishment ceremony has not been scheduled.
Brandhuber estimated the annual economic impact through payroll and private sector contracts for the community to be tens of millions of dollars when the command becomes fully operational in about 18 months.
The shore-based unit will not command any warships, squadrons or submarines, he said. Instead, the personnel will develop anti-sub training exercises and tests for ships, squadrons, strike groups and fleets.
The Navy needs to maintain its skills in locating and hunting the new generation of quiet diesel subs, both near straits and strategic points and in deep water, said Ronald O'Rourke, a naval analyst with the Congressional Research Service.
China and Iran have bought brand-new, top-of-the-line, Kilo-class diesel subs from Russia, and other nations also have been buying submarines. North Korea has a significant fleet of diesel subs, but most are obsolete, analyst Garrett said.
Some submarines being built can submerge without regular surfacings to replenish their air supply. Once a province of nuclear-powered subs, the new "air-independent propulsion" systems add to the difficulty of tracking diesel boats, experts said.
Subs "aren't getting easier to find," said Garrett, who monitors navies for the independent research group GlobalSecurity.org.
All submarines and most warships have some anti-sub capabilities, as do specialized aircraft and helicopters.
However, many of the anti-sub aircraft are being retired, assigned new duties or becoming obsolete. There are fewer nuclear attack subs today than 10 years ago as older vessels are being retired. The Navy has the lowest number of warships since before World War I.
Add to that the difficulty of finding a black-painted submarine in the ocean depths.
"It is as much an art as it is a science," naval analyst O'Rourke said.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense deems this systematic information attack launched by China as military warfare. North Korea is also operating a highly skilled military hacking unit focused on breaching South Korean computer systems.
This is military warfare.
In China’s Master Plan to Destroy America, Unrestricted Warfare, we find the intrusions of hackers as one means of attack. Taiwan’s response in labeling the hacker attack as military warfare may be an acknowledgement that they consider Unrestricted Warfare is being waged.
Whether it be the intrusions of hackers, a major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden, all of these greatly exceed the frequency band widths understood by the American military. http://ftp.die.net/mirror/cryptome/cuw02.htm
-Am
Taiwan Accuses China Of Launching Cyberattack June 16, 2004
According to the Taipei Times, a cabinet minister says government officials believe Chinese hackers have tapped into databases belonging to the Democratic Progressive Party and stolen classified information. By George V. Hulme
Taiwanese government officials believe Chinese hackers have broken into databases belonging to the Democratic Progressive Party, the Taipei Times reported Wednesday, citing an unidentified Cabinet official as its source. "The incident has sent jitters through the Ministry of National Defense, which deems a systematic information attack launched by China as military warfare," the paper quoted the Cabinet official as saying. The official said that the hackers stole classified information pertaining to upcoming visits to the United States by high-ranking Taiwanese government officials, the paper reported. The official also said the personal itineraries of President Chen Shui-bian and other party officials were stolen.
This isn't the only recent allegation of potentially state-sponsored cyberattacks. On May 27, Agence France-Presse cited South Korea's highest ranking military intelligence official, Song Young-Keun, commanding general of the Defense Security Command, as saying that North Korea is operating a highly skilled military hacking unit focused on breaching South Korean computer systems.
The AFP report quoted Young-Keun claiming that the North Korean hackers were stealing classified information from research institutes and government agencies.
"It should be no surprise to anyone that this is going on," says John Watters, president and CEO at security intelligence services provider iDefense Inc. "The surprise is that this is making the press and countries are acknowledging that they've been hacked."
Watters says it appears that some governments often work with rogue hacking groups to attack other nations, rather than use their own military hackers. "They don't want it proven that they were directly involved in the attack, which would be seen as an act of cyberwar," he adds.
Watters says there's no direct proof that such attacks are conducted in conjunction with nation states. "But there certainly appears to be some connectedness between the actions of hacker groups and the interests of certain countries," he says. "They appear to be often working in parallel."
Watters says most countries have military hacking groups which collect their own arsenal of digital weapons, including software vulnerabilities and exploit code that haven't been made public.
Unrestricted Warfare Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui (Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House, February 1999)
Is China Behind the 9/11 Attack on the United States?
While it is obvious that Unrestricted Warfare, China’s Master Plan to Destroy America, is being used for American propaganda purposes is there legitimacy in this ‘deadly cognition’?
The unrestricted warfare advocated in the original Chinese version is primarily a defensive measure as a strategic black mail. However in view of the events taking place not only on 9/11 but at other times it is clear that the defensive nature of the document may have become aggressive. Current and political events reveal that Unrestricted Warfare is being implemented by it seems not only China but other countries as well.
Following are a few excerpts I have gathered from Unrestricted Warfare with some rather curious surrounding circumstances.
Excerpt: Unrestricted Warfare
Whether it be the intrusions of hackers, a major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden, all of these greatly exceed the frequency band widths understood by the American military. http://ftp.die.net/mirror/cryptome/cuw02.htm
Thus, from China, a long time supporter of al Qaeda, comes the concept for the second more deadly 9/11 attack against the United States, a major explosion at the World Trade Center, or a bombing attack by bin Laden.
From George Lerner CNN Thursday, July 1, 2004 Posted: 2329 GMT (0729 HKT)
(CNN) -- Federal authorities in Camden, New Jersey, charged seven people Thursday with conspiring to sell military technology to China.
The defendants were arrested Thursday morning at their homes or offices and were scheduled to appear during the afternoon in federal court in Camden.
Prosecutors allege that the seven violated U.S. export laws by selling defense weapons systems, including radar, smart weapons, electronic warfare and communications.
All the suspects are employees or officers at Universal Technologies Inc. and Manten Electronics, both of Mount Laurel, New Jersey.
One complaint involved Universal Technologies President Teng Fang Li, Vice President Zhonghe Ji, and employee Ronge Tong.
A second complaint charged Manten President Xu Weibo, purchasing agent Xiu Ling Chen, Vice President Hao Li Chen and company controller Kwan Chun Chan.
Five of the defendants are naturalized U.S. citizens and two are legal permanent residents.
The charges stem from an 18-month investigation that involved the FBI, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the U.S. Department of Commerce.
They are charged with conspiracy, wire fraud and violation of the Export Administration Act.
The export violations carry a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison and a $1 million fine. Each count of conspiracy and wire fraud carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.
"These people are building ships like nobody's business," a military attache in Beijing said. "It's mind-boggling."
Construction has begun on about 70 military ships over the last 12 months, including a number of landing craft, and China is considering acquisition of another two Soviet-designed Sovremenny-class destroyers to complement the three it already owns, he added. More Kilo-class submarines are the subject of negotiations or already purchased, adding to the four bought several years ago. #msg-2646136
I would question if such fervor is solely for Taiwan. China's neighbors in the region must be reminded that once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it will become a regional problem which will have serious economic, social and military consequences throughout Asia and the world.
China has given some clues as to their intentions.
China looks to a Ming admiral as fodder for a maritime revival. "The current enhancement of the Chinese presence in the region is very much parallel to 600 years ago when Zheng He cruised through the region and tried to set foot in neighboring territory to extend Chinese influence," military expert Andrew Yang said
"They were military missions with strategic aims," writes scholar Geoff Wade of the National University of Singapore. "The military aspect of these voyages needs underlining, in part because of the stress placed on these missions in much current scholarship as `voyages of friendship.'"
Zheng wanted to not only spread imperial Ming influence but to develop trade. China's communist overlords want to have a say in regional diplomacy and also protect sea lanes that carry the oil to fuel their economy and their burgeoning exports.
Almost all of China's energy imports flow through the Malacca Strait, a narrow sea lane vulnerable to pirate attack. China fears not just terrorists but the United States gaining control of the Malacca Strait.
US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said during a visit to Singapore that he hoped to have US troops fighting terrorism in Southeast Asia "pretty soon". His comments fuelled speculation that the United States wants to deploy US forces in the Strait of Malacca, the narrow and busy shipping lane straddled by Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore that is seen as a likely terrorist target. #msg-3404130
China however is unlikely to join Japan in financing safety measures for the Strait but will do what it can to ensure security on the high seas. #msg-3404130
China's objectives regarding Taiwan include "capabilities to deter, delay, or disrupt third-party intervention in a cross-Strait military crisis." What China is saying is that should a conflict arise we will see one or more of our aircraft carriers and accompanying ships disappear. #msg-3214699
China and Iran have bought brand-new, top-of-the-line, Kilo-class diesel subs from Russia, and other nations also have been buying submarines. #msg-3333316
The ‘Onyx’ missile means that Russia or China can sink American aircraft carriers at will without ever having to escalate to nuclear warfare, which gives both countries a massive strategic advantage. #msg-3429768
The Chinese focus a great deal on aircraft carriers. It's a huge topic in China. There's even an Internet Website where people put up suggestions about good ways to attack American aircraft carriers. #msg-3471674
What we have is China’s reverence for a Ming admiral who sailed military missions with strategic aims, China’s building of ships like nobody's business, their strategy of intervention, their obsession with taking out American aircraft carriers, their top-of-the-line subs equipped with the Onyx, and their statement that China will ensure security on the high seas.
-Am
China looks to eunuch admiral for inspiration
LESS INNOCUOUS: The Chinese navy was never anything to write home about, at least since the Ming Dynasty, but now a Ming admiral is fodder for a maritime revival
REUTERS , SINGAPORE Saturday, Jul 10, 2004,Page 5 China is celebrating the 15th century voyages of a Chinese eunuch admiral sailing as far west as the coast of Africa as evidence of its historical pursuit of peaceful relations with other countries and cultures.
Analysts say Zheng He's (鄭和) tactics were less innocuous than Chinese historians would portray and their martial nature mirrors more closely Beijing's expansion of its maritime presence today.
Festivities launched this week for the 600th anniversary of Zheng's voyages vaunt Beijing's benevolent diplomacy, remembering how the Muslim admiral led seven armadas through southeast Asia and beyond to spread Chinese influence from 1405 to 1433.
"Instead of occupying a single piece of land, building a fort or seizing treasure, Zheng He treated other countries with friendship," said Xu Zuyuan (徐祖遠), China's deputy minister of communications. "We think the legacy of Zheng He's seven voyages to the West is that a `peaceful rise' is the inevitable outcome of China's history."
Some China historians and maritime security experts take issue with Xu's assertion that Zheng's voyages bolstering the influence of the recently installed Ming dynasty were of a purely peaceful nature -- and not expansionist.
And a question mark hangs over the motives of Beijing's communist rulers as they slowly develop their coastal navy into a blue-water force capable of following in Zheng's wake and building relationships in southeast Asia.
"The current enhancement of the Chinese presence in the region is very much parallel to 600 years ago when Zheng He cruised through the region and tried to set foot in neighboring territory to extend Chinese influence," military expert Andrew Yang (楊念祖) said.
"The purpose is more or less identical -- to try to establish some kind of collaboration and cooperation conducive to China's long-term economic and national interests," said Yang, who is secretary-general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies.
The goals of the 15th century admiral and his successors today have common features.
"They were military missions with strategic aims," writes scholar Geoff Wade of the National University of Singapore. "The military aspect of these voyages needs underlining, in part because of the stress placed on these missions in much current scholarship as `voyages of friendship.'"
Zheng wanted to not only spread imperial Ming influence but to develop trade. China's communist overlords want to have a say in regional diplomacy and also protect sea lanes that carry the oil to fuel their economy and their burgeoning exports.
"China's energy flows are very, very critical and will become more so in the years to come," said Prakash Metaparti, a former Indian navy commander and a naval expert at the Center for Asian Studies at the University of Hong Kong.
Several southeast Asian neighbors, and likely the US as well, worry about spreading Chinese influence and whether Chinese naval vessels will one day acquire the capability to sail into waters where Zheng's 62 warships and thousands of sailors conquered ports and gathered tribute.
Beijing may, for now, be more worried about ensuring an uninterrupted flow of oil imports through the Malacca Strait from the Middle East. It needs to guarantee that the industrial machine that has become the world's workshop provides a steady stream of jobs, boosts incomes and keeps the Communist Party in power.
"This is a long-term development strategy: to secure energy supplies in the surrounding sea area," Yang said. "Securing their maritime interests is vital for their economic and future survival."
Almost all of China's energy imports flow through the Malacca Strait, a narrow sea lane vulnerable to pirate attack. Terrorists have yet to strike there but security experts fear they may.
Oil accounts for 22 percent of China's total energy mix and a third comes from imports. The world's second-largest oil consumer will see oil accounting for 31 percent of its energy mix by 2020.
To protect those imports and expand the range of its influence, China takes a two-pronged strategy by spending on naval modernization and signing trade deals with neighbors.
But by 2020, it may only just be able to command a world-class navy. While Chinese submarines can now ply up to 500 nautical miles off shore, above the waves its ships still sail in a range little beyond 300 to 500 nautical miles from the coast.
"They will not be able to project their power anywhere beyond their immediate coast areas for at least 10 years, and maybe not for 15 to 20 years," Metaparti said. This story has been viewed 279 times. Advertising
In light of the growing economic and trade relations between the two, as well as Canberra's status as an important US ally in the Asian region, Beijing can restrain the US-Australia alliance by luring over the latter and preventing it from interfering if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait.
Moreover, through Australia's influence over the countries of Oceania, China can prevent Taiwan from extending its reach in the region. Beijing purposely appointed Fu Ying -- a former director-general of the Department of Asian Affairs under the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs -- as ambassador to Australia in March.
The Chinese cannot match us yet but have instead put emphasis on how to effectively prevent intervention by superior US forces.
To achieve that, the Chinese might already have been developing a weapon that they cryptically call an assassin's mace to give them an advantage in combat.
"An assassin's mace weapon is something that is designed based on American vulnerabilities," Pillsbury said. "You study what would bring the Americans to their knees in a specific conflict, such as the American effort to … perhaps to defend Taiwan, and you make a list of the American strengths and weaknesses and you focus on the weaknesses in an attempt to develop so-called assassin's-mace weapons that will penalize the Americans at a key moment, and you, by the way, conceal these weapons. That's the heart of the assassin's-mace idea. It's not exposed until it's needed at a key moment on the battlefield."
Much of assassin’s–mace is preventative warfare. For example the Chinese have effectively developed the means by which to stop American aircraft carriers from reaching the war zone.
Pillsbury found references to 15 such weapons in Chinese military writings. "They focus a great deal on aircraft carriers," he says. "It's a big topic in China. There's even an Internet Website where people put up suggestions about good ways to attack American aircraft carriers." #msg-3267895
Given that China is using ‘Unrestricted Warfare’ the assassin’s-mace can be abstract in nature. #msg-3214699
Thus preventing Australia and perhaps Canada and other allies from interfering if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait would then be considered a part of assassin’s-mace as would the prevention of Taiwan from extending its reach in Oceania.
-Am
Australia siding with China in the Pacific
By Yang Chih-heng
Wednesday, Dec 08, 2004,Page 8
Not long ago, Minister of Foreign Affairs Mark Chen confirmed his deputy Michael Kau was taking on China's diplomats in Vanuatu. With the advantage of superior numbers, the Chinese are monitoring the staff of Taiwan's temporary embassy in the Le Meridien hotel in Vanuatu's capital. They have even eavesdropped on the Taiwanese diplomats' conversations, and have warned the hotel to lower Taiwan's national flag. Such conduct is repellent and clearly illustrates the evil face of China's diplomacy.
Backed by Vanuatuan Prime Minister Serge Vohor, Taiwan's flag is still flying in Port Vila. As for the question of how long such "dual recognition" will last, this will likely depend on the parliament's support for his decision.
In the latest round of this battle, China has mobilized a massive amount of resources to thwart Taiwan. The most obvious example is Australia's interference, with the Australian government attempting to defame Vohor for corruption in Vanuatu while threatening to cut off economic aid. At this crucial moment, Australia's move has helped China to interfere with diplomatic ties between Taiwan and Vanuatu.
Therefore, on Nov. 29, Chen summoned Australian Commerce and Industry Office Representative Frances Adamson, and told Canberra not to meddle in Taiwan-Vanuatu ties. China's purpose is very clear, and it will not give up until Vohor gives in.
Australia's behavior reminds one of unfriendly remarks made by Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer during his visit to Beijing in August, which seriously upset the Taiwanese public. In fact, Australia has gradually been changing its diplomatic strategy, shifting the focus from Europe to Asia ever since the mid-1990s. Apart from building relations with ASEAN, it also takes the improvement of Sino-Australian relations as an index, while China has become one of its major trade partners.
In light of the growing
economic and trade relations between the two, as well as Canberra's status as an important US ally in the Asian region, Beijing can restrain the US-Australia alliance by luring over the latter and preventing it from interfering if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait.
Moreover, through Australia's influence over the countries of Oceania, China can prevent Taiwan from extending its reach in the region. Beijing purposely appointed Fu Ying -- a former director-general of the Department of Asian Affairs under the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs -- as ambassador to Australia in March.
It's clear that Beijing's diplomatic strategy toward Australia is more than what it seems. As expected, Australia is behind the entanglement of Taiwan-Vanuatu ties. And for Taiwan, there are now two enemies in this conflict.
Taiwan must continue this battle. The thing of primary interest is that Vohor hopes to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan and China at the same time, a stance that deserves our recognition and support.
It is more feasible if we can begin a new phase by adopting such "dual recognition." We are unable to predict how long Vanuatu's "dual recognition" can stand up against China's pressure, but the longer the better.
On the other hand, if Taiwan really wants to push for Oceanian diplomacy in the future, it may have to strengthen its diplomatic relations with Australia, and in particular communicate with Canberra on the ideal of dual recognition. After all, it is unnecessary for Australia to interfere with Taiwan's diplomacy.
Yang Chih-heng is an adjunct professor in the Graduate Institute of Southeast Asian Studies at Tamkang University.
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