The Dow is a NUTBAG in my opinion right now. The employment numbers came out and they're TERRIBLE reaching new highs. The economy is going in the toilet no matter what happens with this bill.
And by the way...It's still up in the air whether this will even come to the floor at all. The repubs WILL NOT SAY that they have the votes yet. A lot of arm twising is currently underway but when asked they would not yet commit to a sufficient number of votes.
If the bill does pass we still have to wait to see at what price the assets are sold to the fed. If they pay too much they'll need to come back and ask for more taxpayer money...which IMO AGAIN, will not be given. NO way now how!
And that will mean that printing money is the only tool left to them...INFLATIONARY.
If they get a reaonable deal on the assets...we'll have to wait and see how the reverse auction goes and then watch from there what happens in the credit market.
Gold and silver are up pretty good right here. That would appear to mean to me that there's a lot of skepticism as to whether this bill will get to the floor or pass if it does. On the other hand the general market is also up which would seem to point to some confidence that the bill will pass. It's crazy out there I tell ya!
Personally I give it a little less than a 50-50 chance of passing.
I'll be going offline here in a few minutes. We're having a new carpet installed in the office and I have to disconnect the electronics.
Hope I have it back online by the time the vote either happens or doesn't happen.
I think I may have figured out what's going on right here...
Traders are covering both sides of this trade, buying both silver/gold and stocks.
I now suspect that, again depending on the outcome of whether the bill goes to the floor or not,(and it will only GET TO THE FLOOR if the votes are actually there)
that one will soar and the other will tank. Be ready!
If the bill does go to the floor/passes, the Dow will soar...for about 5 minutes and silver/gold will tank and stay down. Then reality will sink in and the Dow will fall back again and may even end in negative territory along side silver/gold.
If the bill doesn't go to the floor/fails, the Dow will have another tantrum and tank BIG-TIME while silver/gold will soar, then drop back SOME but then stabilize at a higher level.
I figured out a way to stay online while the carpet is being put in. YAY! LOL
So...now we watch to see what price they pay for the toxic assets. They say they'll pay somewhere in between "real value" and "mark to market".
How they figure "real value" is the voodoo in this doodoo. Hang on to your wallet!
I guess we also have to stay on watch for "liquidity infusions" too.
Even before the vote, California/Schwartzenegger said they need $7 billion or they'll have to start closing publically funded operations...ie schools and god knows what else.
Paper silver isn't exactly "tanking", at least not yet. It'll be interesting to see what direction the price of paper AND physical silver goes for in the secondary markets in the next few days.
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