Replies to post #35680 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[pegwatcher]

Wow! So the new 4 1/2 year cycle gave us only a couple months of upside according to your application of Hurst.

I would not be surprised if you are right but those 'frogs-in-a-pot' over the next 3 or 4 years will make it hard to make any money.

Anyway, thanks for your perspective

[sentiment]

arjunah - Thanks, I actually come up with the same phasing a few days ago going back & reading airedales post at elite trader. Just visually looking at several charts I found 3 80 week cycles within the 4.5 year cycle pointing to march 08 as bottom. I think airdale mentioned he found 3 80 weeks cycles going into august, but after going back & looking I think he would have changed his phasing based on the action that happen afterward. I mentioned to bliss a little while back that i thought march 08 was a good possibility, but I also mentioned that either the selloff was some sort of fundamental cycle straddle or we were very bearish & larger cycles had turned down. What you say makes the most sense from a cycle perspective I just wasn't comfortable saying it because I don't have much hurst experience except for reading his book & the post made here in the past. I also see a clear 20 week cycle from march 08 to july 08, if thats the case then we have more selling into a 40wk bottom to come soon