I think any strong move up at this point may have to wait for (a) the rate hike at the next Fed meeting (see how much and what the Fed says about future hikes) and (b) the June 30 handover (how much violence between now and then, and how the Iraqi people appear to take it). Too much uncertainty out there right. June to set up one of those proverbial "summer rallies."
At least such is my speculation right now. But I thought the market would go down back in Sept, so take it for what it is worth.