Replies to post #14096 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[go seek]

Legislators’ focus on solving the financial crisis could persist past the presidential election and well into next year.

Reports are legislation will be signed w/in a week.

Healthcare costs remain a major concern. IMO the current crisis will have no impact on the timeline for US FoB legislation

[croumagnon]

"So, what options does this leave? A merger or buyout. The probability of such a transaction increases with each passing day"

Your post makes a lot of sense Dew and I agree with you 100%. The problem however is that, in this environment, even a merger or a buyout may not be a trivial undertaking because companies are probably holding tightly to their shares and their cash seeing that economic troubles are everywhere...

I guess what I am trying to say is that it seems to me that GTCB has put itself in a real desperate bind here, and companies that could be targeting GTCB for a merger or a buyout know it! That means the negotiating position of GTCB has weakened considerably and we may eventually be taken out for a song....

Would that song be over $1 or under $1 in your opinion?

[jessellivermore]

Re: The trauma of moving

Please understand the following is simply MHO.

First of all, want to tell johnbits I appreciate his use of an analogy. I always think people who use analogies are at least trying to use higher thinking processes rather than the all to common knee jerk reponses all to common on these sites.

I do think GTC is somewhat like a "goldmine" but there are important differences. GTC is a very unique and somewhat exotic outfit. A very high percentage of GTC's value lies in intangibles. At present transgenic technique is still in the era where there is at least as much art involved as science. Over the years GTC has accumulated "people" including scientists and technicians who have become adept at transgenic technique. These skills have no doubt been honed over years of trial and error. It is not clear how easy it would be to replace these individuals or where their loyalties might take them or what other companies might offer them in terms of employment in the case of a takeover or breakup. Any buyer would have to consider his position similar to someone purchasing an inter stellar space ship and not understanding the technology or having the personal to operate it. For example, as a plastic surgeon I have a professional cooporation
___________, MDPC. Someone might purchase my cooporation, but since the greatest item of value is me, and I am free do what I please, and I will of course quit and open my own practice, so no one in their right mind will purchase my PC.

I do not with all dew respect view GTC's lack of "panic" as indicative that the end is near. I do not think the management of GTC is dumber than Dew and thought they would be able to float a PIPE (they can remember back to Feb). Although a possible merger with NABI who has the cash they need is possible, I still think by far the most likely scenario is the partners pitching in to help them.

PS. I did play golf this weekend with major stock market player. He did confirm there is a lot of concern over whats coming today in the market.

[biopearl]

Dew, Eight weeks is a pretty short time frame to pull something with "some style" off. If a further support from an existing partner existed, it would probably have been announced. Agree the revere split seems unlikely. So what is pending in the public domaine that could happen in the next eight weeks? The only thing I see (short of some magic with a generic company like TEVA), is the release of the MM 093 data re RA. This might be a PR spring board for us or an opportunity to highlight a partnership with Merrimack. There is still the Gates foundation, there are visionaries there... Regards, bp