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09/16/08 6:05 PM

#78388 RE: Fred Kadiddlehopper #78387

i'll take picks and shovels in energy over smoke and mirrors in financials, that's for sure. :) many pundits have noted that recent weakness in the crude oil trade has been, in large part, due to liquidation of LEH's positions and the domino effect from that unwinding.

meanwhile conflict rages in nigeria, platforms and pipelines in the gulf could be damaged for months to come, and while global demand will ebb and flow, the bottleneck for exploration is real and getting worse all the time. oil services can't miss a beat while they continue to take new projects online.

odd as it may seem, $WTIC is actually down on the year now, and when bubbles pop they often over-correct to the downside. time will tell if this is the bottom yet, but today the oil patch was starting to show a bit of green. here's a random sampling of just a few names:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?DPDW,SLB,BHP,ACGY,PBR,CAM,APC,RIG,DVR,VE|D
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Trueheart

09/16/08 8:39 PM

#78400 RE: Fred Kadiddlehopper #78387

FK, thank you for the rebuttle.

However, I did not find it convincing in light of the fact that oil is down from $147 to approx $90 today. And it may go lower, as we all realize.

Fewer dollars per barrel means fewer dollars to pay for products and services. Look at it as fewer dollars chasing a given number of P&S providers in any industry. Prices come down due to competition for the fewer dollars.

Of course there will be a certain area that will support prices (an equilibrium) and I think we shall see it.

Of course the value of my argument is lessened and perhaps negated if oil once again uptrends to its former highs.

Again, thank you for the conversation.

AIMMHO.

Trueheart