Replies to post #12466 on Profunds index and sector trading (PRO)

[LG]

a_i: I think there is a good possibility that the high into today's close was at least an intraday pivot high. If so, then so far as of late...my stuff has been supporting your read. I don't know about a "monster" decline, I would need to see my daily models rolled over near midrange...


Regards,
LG

[otraque]

I now have in the frame of a downtrend channel from 1559.xx the 1479 area as the upper level of downtred at this point.
Now in terms of your Wave(iii)would that come in effect on a failure at 1479.
As WAVE(iii) forming is of my highest priority, are you saying WAVE(iii) can form near term or is it something significantly farther off in time your frame??? Welles

[Z-M-L]

After Tuesday’s rally, the amplitude of that move “exceeded” the Apex of Wave-i of (i) of 3 of C at 1434.16 in the NDX. That violation of a tenet of the Elliott Wave Principle meant that this rally was “no longer” Wave-iv of (i) of 3of C; but was in reality ‘corrective” Wave-(ii) of 3 of C unfolding. Therefore then, Wave (i) of 3 of C traveled from the HIGH at 1508.37 to the LOW of 1372.46; with Wave-v of (i) of 3 of C being an Ending Diagonal Triangle. So the possible FIB retracement levels that could be reached during this “correction” are:

(.618) 1456.45
(.786) 1479.29

The NDX struggled all day today to move higher; but did finally hit, on an inter-day basis, 1455.00. Also this correction has now been eight minus one (8-1) FIB trading days long. So it is STILL possible for the NDX to move higher tomorrow; or Friday, which would be then (8+1) FIB trading days long. The NDX could STILL go to or near 1456 or even 1479. In fact, the “boys” may save their larceny until after the long weekend; and simply chop the markets around for the next two days. Either way once the NDX “CLOSES” below 1427.51, we will have confirmation that next leg of DECLINE is underway; which is Wave (iii) of 3 of C. This is the most powerful position within the Elliott Wave Pattern; since it is the Epi-Center of the Five-Wave Impulse Pattern. It promises to be “Extended” in BOTH Amplitude and Time. This next leg of the DECLINE in the NDX “could” be as much as 356 points in magnitude from the Apex of Wave (ii) of 3 of C; which should be completed over the next two trading days. The Wave (iii) of 3 Epi-Center position was referred to by R.N. Elliott as the “Recognition Wave”; because once it gets underway, it will finally be “recognized” for what it is…confirmation of the TREND since January 20th of 2004 in the NDX. It will also NEGATE any possibility of the Alternate Count of an A-B-C Wave 4 correction since January 20th of 2004.

I am keeping my STOP LOSS at 1500 on the NDX.

Currently, I have a position in the Rydex Venture (RYVNX) Fund, established on 04/12/04 at $24.92, within the Aggressive Portion of the portfolio; while the Conservative Portion of the portfolio has been in Cash or Cash equivalents since 01/02/04.