Replies to post #248053 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Hobie1Kenobe]

Lango - Niles is a winner. He was the first to go negative on Dell as their growth rate peaked - I remember cause I was holding a boatload of Dell calls.....Hob

[langostino]

TJ - from SSB research note

May 17, 2004, SSB research note entitled "Semiconductors - Best May Be Behind Us But Cycle Remains Intact" ....

"The "best" of the cycle has past--traditional indicators like Y/Y revenues &
Q/Q EPS revision momentum has peaked, investors are pricing in 2005 deceleration; could keep some investors away for the cycle

But supply/demand balance remains in favor of chipmakers through mid-2005
--supply not to be the problem given conservatism of chipmakers to spend and
current macro-demand outlook is encouraging ...

After significant decline in the SOX, combined with developing seasonal
tailwinds, we believe a potential for a positive seasonal trade is forming; we
are currently looking to become more aggressive over course of the summer"


That's not all that far off from what I expect either. And I give them credit for having recognized that the key difference in this cycle relative to recent past cycles is the conservatism of chipmakers to spend into full manic-mode.