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Replies to #64948 on Biotech Values
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jbog

08/02/08 7:52 PM

#64955 RE: alertmeipp #64948

Alertmeipp,

There's no question the selloff has been harsh but I wouldn't assume it's done yet.

Martin really PO'd the big investors this week at the ipd. I read they ripped him pretty bad at a dinner that night.

The trust could be gone.

"""Last night, Elan held an invitation-only party for select investors in a private room of a Chicago restaurant. The event, attended by many of Elan's largest shareholders and biggest fans, was to be a "celebratory" event.

Well, the event turned out to be more of a wake than a party, according to a spy who was in attendance.

"The mood was a combination of depressed and pissed off," said my source. There was very little drinking, everyone was somber and complaining. Instead of celebrating and back-slapping his shareholders, Martin was forced to answer questions about what went wrong, my spy tells me. """"

af

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zipjet

08/03/08 9:43 AM

#64975 RE: alertmeipp #64948

>>ELN - the selling is probably overdone. It's looking cheap even if assume Tysabri growth will slow down significantly.

That may be right. But it is not clear to me.

The T franchise is now burdened with the risk that sales will be discontinued. Pulling the drug could happen any time. This cloud will hang over the stock for at least another year or two while this is sorted out should the drug remain on the market.

So what value should the stock holders place on a franchise that could evaporate any day?

My guess is that ELN could drop to 6 before this is resolved even assuming T is not pulled and significantly lower if pulled.

zip


Kindness is the language which the deaf can hear and the blind can see. (Mark Twain)