You are correct they are both treated as commodities and in this environment susceptible to flights inflation hedging. IMO That correlation is worth studying but fundamentally difficult to get a handle on and or flawed. Fert is a processed commodity like gas/Diesel. Not like Oil or NG . POT falls more in the category of Driller refiner. POT's cost structure is negatively impacted by higher costs of NG as a feedstock. I would expect NG/ POT relationship to be more like the Airline/Oil. But it's not; My best guess is that they both are tied by being basic essentials. Fert feedstock to population Hydrocarbons feedstock to industrialization. And as such they share similar standing and consumption rates. Where they differ is Oil as a commodity does not sport a PE nor Alpha risk where as Ferts do. Where Ferts shine is that unlike hydrocarbons they are not as susceptible to demand destruction thru alternative developing sources. Fert are the only game in town. I'll try and work up an approach.
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