Market: On Friday's close, the top indicator I follow triggered. Now what does this mean? This top indicator has signaled tops to the day or at least to the price area all throughout this bull run.
Prior to this trigger, it had gone off in severely overbought markets which looked like they would never turn down. In a sense, this churning up and down with nowhere to be found is just such a market.
I have noticed that when the set up is taking place and before the trigger, dips can be bought with some success because we never close at the low and always have bogus rally attempts that lead nowhere. And I can say that these few days fit the bill well on that front.
But it has triggered when the indicators I follow have price sells. Well, I do not have price sells in here. And I am not really close to having sells and it is certainly not triggering at any price high. So, somthing is different for sure. It looks like a lagging indicator here in this market. I guess I would view it now as confirmastion of my bearish scenario short term. I hacve been saying for a long time that this market needs downside reolution and this indicator serves as confirmation of that view in my mind.
And short term sentiment indicators also confirmed this view on Friday. We closed about the same level as we did Monday on the Naz yet complacency more than doubled on Friday's close when compared to Monday. Short term sentiment is not extreme on the bullish side yet but all this up and down chop has done is set up the bulls for a further decline.
The price signals also confirm this thinking. On Monday, we were approaching buys on the indicators but on Friday they have more than doubled as well over Monday toward a neutral position which requires more down resolution to finding a bottom as they did on Monday. So on the price front, the market is poised to decline as well.
The sox is now acting with the naz and ndx which is what one would expect when looking for a good bottom.
So, in summary, the top indicators, sentiment and price all point toward more decline going foward in looking for a solid bottom. I don't have any targets in here but am just waiting for the market to do its dirty work.
If we get a bogus rally atttempt that causes short term sentiment to get bullish to the point of being extreme, I will short it.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
